Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231509
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1109 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Satellite analysis shows a cold front is located across northern
Florida (around the Big Bend area) this morning. This cold front
will continue to slowly shift southward through the day, pushing
through east central Florida tonight into early Sunday morning.
Shower activity across the south and adjacent Atlantic waters
earlier this morning has since dissipated or moved out of the local
area. The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows additional showers moving in from
the west coast currently, mainly across the northern part of the
CWA. These showers are generally moving eastward to northeast at 15-
20 mph. Low to mid level clouds are streaming across east central
Florida this morning, producing partly cloudy skies. This cloud
cover will clear into early afternoon, becoming mostly sunny to
sunny.

Drier air continues to filter in across the area this morning, with
the GOES 16 satellite PWATS remaining at 1.3" across ECFL, with
value around 1.0" farther north closer to the approaching cold
front. Showers, and especially surface based convection, will have a
a a difficult time when it comes to development today, given the
drier air filtering in, as well as any cloud cover this morning
limiting surface based heating. However, the mid-upper level
troughing remains in a favorable position, over to just west of
Florida, for large scale ascent. Shear is substantial (bulk shear
sfc-6km/8km) at 60-70 kts, and 500mb temperatures cooling from
around -12 C to -15 C. Therefore, there is a conditional threat for
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and hail, if that deep
convection can manage to develop. Overall, showers and lightning
storm chances will decrease and shift southward and over the
Atlantic waters through the day and into the overnight hours.

Otherwise, expect westerly winds 10-15 mph today, with gusts around
20 mph. Gustier and possibly breezy conditions expected overnight as
the front passes through, with the Volusia and northern Brevard
coastal corridor, especially the barrier islands, becoming windy.
Daytime highs pushing towards around 80, but depending on cloud
cover some spots may get stuck in the U70s. Overnight lows cooling
off to the U50-L60s. Forecast remains on track with only minor
adjustments to the rain chance and cloud cover for today to
account for current observations and model updates.

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Poor to hazardous seas continue today. Small craft should exercise
caution in the nearshore waters today, with a Small Craft Advisory
remaining in effect for the offshore waters through this afternoon.
While conditions will improve this afternoon, they are expected to
rapidly deteriorate tonight as a cold front pushes through the
waters. West to southwest winds this morning will becoming W-NW by
the afternoon, with a tight speed gradient between the Volusia
coast (5-10 KT increasing) and well offshore the Treasure Coast (20-
25 KT). Winds ease to around 10 KT by sunset, then quickly increase
to 20-30 KT (highest in the Volusia waters) from the north once
again late tonight behind the front. Seas 5-8 ft this morning settle
to 3-6 ft late this evening, then jump back up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf
Stream off Volusia and Brevard, and will continue to build. Rounds
of showers and lightning storms will be possible, especially over
the Gulf Stream. A Small Craft Advisory for all central Florida
Atlantic waters will go into effect at 11 PM today. Small craft
should exercise caution between advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
MVFR CIGs this morning are quickly lifting. VFR conditions expected
area wide late this morning into the early part of the tonight.
South to southwest winds around 10 KT and gusty today. SHRA/TSRA
remain possible through 17Z, but confidence remains low in
timing/location for TEMPOs, so continued VC mention. MVFR CIGs
forecast again after midnight. Winds veer N-NE overnight and
increase to 10-15 KT with gusts to 20 KT possible towards Sunday
morning, possibly higher at DAB behind the cold front.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Today-Tonight...Looks like showers, and especially surface based
convection, will have an uphill battle for development. Drier air
filtering across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida is making
for an increasingly hostile environment, with GOES satellite imagery
showing PWATs around 1.3" across east central Florida (down from 1.4-
1.5" in yesterday`s TBW and XMR soundings), and less than 1" near
the approaching cold front. Showers and storms in the Gulf, which
the CAMs had generally depicted persisting towards central Florida,
have dissipated, which is indicative of how hi-res models have
struggled in this event. In addition, developing stratus is forecast
to persist through the late morning, delaying and possibly limiting
daytime heating, reducing energy available for showers and storms.
All that said, the mid-upper level troughing remains in a favorable
position, over to just west of Florida, for large scale ascent.
Shear is substantial with bulk shear (sfc-6km/8km) at 60-70 kts,
plus a backed profile early this morning near the coast before
southerly surface winds veer to westerly, and 500mb temperatures
cooling from around -12 C to -15 C. Therefore, there is a
conditional threat for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and
hail, if that deep convection can manage to develop.

As for the rest of the forecast, westerly winds 10-15 mph could get
a little gusty, but at least during the day much more moderate than
yesterday. Gustier and possibly breezy conditions expected overnight
as the front passes through, with the Volusia and northern Brevard
coastal corridor, especially the barrier islands, becoming windy.
Daytime highs pushing towards around 80, but depending on cloud
cover some spots may get stuck in the U70s. Overnight lows cooling
off to the U50-L60s.

Sun...Departing sfc low and upper trough will allow high pressure
ridge to build into the area. A tightening northerly pressure
gradient will produce windy conditions esp along the coast,
gusting 30-35 mph. Cyclonic low level flow will produce
considerable clouds esp along the coast and support isolated
showers/sprinkles pushing onshore obliquely from the N/NE.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with maxes holding in the
upper 60s along the VOlusia and north Brevard coasts...and low to
mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight lows Sunday night will be in the mid
to upper 50s across the interior and low to mid 60s along the
coast south of the Cape.

Mon-Fri...Surface high pressure ridge axis over the region will
push eastward out into the Atlantic on Monday. A weakening cold
front will approach the local area mid week while slowing its
forward progress. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the
boundary near the SE US coast and swing the trailing front across
the area Thu. Dry conditions will dominate Mon-Tue with rain
chances returning Wed aftn across the north and scattered PoPs
(30-40 percent) areawide Thu with frontal passage. Breezy N/NW
winds Fri behind the front will bring cooler and drier conds.

Temperatures will reach the mid 70s along the coast and near 80
across the far interior on Monday, then warming into the mid 80s
interior Tue-Wed, lower 80s coast. Not quite as warm Thu due to
clouds/precip then slightly cooler Fri with lower 70s Volusia
coast and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Coolest low temperatures
will be Fri morning dipping into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  59  69  57 /  40  30  10   0
MCO  80  60  72  58 /  30  20   0   0
MLB  79  62  71  62 /  30  20  20   0
VRB  81  61  74  61 /  40  20  10   0
LEE  79  58  72  54 /  30  20   0   0
SFB  80  59  72  56 /  30  20   0   0
ORL  80  60  72  57 /  30  20   0   0
FPR  80  59  74  61 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Watson
LONG TERM....Leahy
AVIATION...99


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