Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
707 FXUS62 KMLB 030201 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1001 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Local radar imagery shows dry conditions aross east central Florida. Analysis charts depict a mid/upper level ridge that continues to build over the eastern CONUS with high pressure centered to the west of Bermuda over the western Atlantic. Winds will be light from the east-southeast at 5 mph overnight. Mostly clear skies are forecast to become partly to mostly cloudy over Orlando and to the northeast with low stratus and patchy fog developing into the early morning hours. Visibilities will have the potential to drop to a mile or less at times over portions of Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Brevard counties. However, confidence is low due to fog not materializing the past couple of nights when guidance suggested othwerwise. If you encounter locally dense fog, remember to use your low beam headlights and leave extra distance between you and the vehicle in front of you. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the low to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 1001 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions are forecast with the exception of KDAB where patchy fog will have the potential to drop visbility to 3 miles or less at times early Friday. Guidance suggests that low stratus could result in a brief period of MVFR CIGs at KMCO and KSFB Friday morning but confidence remains low. Light east to southeast winds are forecast to increase to around 12kts into Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1001 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Favorable boating conditions are forecast with high pressure in place over the western Atlantic. East to southeast winds at 12kts or less are forecast under partly cloudy skies. Seas are expected to build to 1-2ft with up to 3 ft in the Gulf Stream. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1001 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Current-Friday... The east coast sea breeze has formed and is currently pushing inland this afternoon. The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows a few isolated showers forming along the sea breeze boundary, mainly around the Sanford area. Temperatures as of 3 PM range from low 80s to mid 80s where the sea breeze has pushed through, and upper 80s from Orlando westward. Onshore winds around 10 mph have increased to around 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph behind the sea breeze. Upper level ridging will remain in place through Friday, with plenty of sunshine expected. The east coast sea breeze will continue to push inland this afternoon, with the collision forecast to occur across the far western interior or across the western portion of the peninsula later this afternoon. Additional isolated showers and lightning storms (PoP 20 percent) will be possible across the western interior this afternoon where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. The main threats with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions for the rest of the afternoon with onshore flow around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the interior. Tonight, expect dry conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Model guidance was hinting at patchy fog being possible late tonight into early Friday morning. Greatest potential for fog to form will be across portions of Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Volusia and Brevard counties. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s with light and variable winds. Friday will be much like today, with mostly to partly sunny skies. The east coast sea breeze will form once again in the afternoon and push inland. Drier air will filter in across the area, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.0-1.1" across east central Florida, which will limit overall convection. Due to this drier air, no mentionable rain chances through the day on Friday. Onshore flow will persist, increasing to 10-12mph behind the sea breeze. Temperatures will seasonable along the coast and above normal across the interior. Much like today, afternoon highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the interior. Saturday-Sunday...Surface high pressure builds along the Atlantic seaboard through the weekend. Locally, light southeast flow backs east each afternoon as a sea breeze develops and moves inland. Model soundings remain generally dry with a shallow layer of moisture limited between 850-700mb. This will allow for cumulus development along and ahead of the sea breeze each day. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast each afternoon with the best chance of any precip focused along the west interior where a sea breeze collision is expected to occur late in the day (PoPs ~20-30). A dry layer persisting above 700mb will keep convection shallow. The greatest hazards associated with any convection this weekend includes occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and localized heavy downpours. The sea breeze will keep coastal temperatures near normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures warm a few degrees above normal across the interior climbing into the upper 80s/ low 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to widely range the mid to upper 60s. Monday-Wednesday...Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard drifts into the western Atlantic with its axis settling across the Florida peninsula late in the period. Aloft, mid level ridging across the Bay of Campeche extends into Florida. 500mb heights approaching the 90th climatological percentile by mid week will support an increasing temperature trend. Temperatures ranging the upper 80s/ low 90s across the interior Monday afternoon will range the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. A few degrees "cooler" along the coast, warming into the mid to upper 80s by mid week. Mostly dry conditions are forecast with no mentionable precip through the extended period. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Friday (modified previous discussion)... Favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure remains over the local area. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon, increasing the winds to around 10-15 KT. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated showers will be possible today, mainly in the offshore waters. A lightning storm or two can not be ruled out. Dry conditions expected on Friday. Saturday-Tuesday...Favorable boating conditions continue. Southeast flow around 10-15 kts backs east along the coast each afternoon as a seabreeze develops. Southeast winds begin to shift south Monday night as a high pressure axis settles across the waters. Seas of 2-3 ft persist through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast through the weekend, drying Monday and Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 84 67 84 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 67 89 67 89 / 0 10 0 20 MLB 69 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 20 VRB 67 84 67 85 / 0 10 0 20 LEE 68 90 69 88 / 0 10 0 30 SFB 67 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 68 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 66 84 67 84 / 0 10 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling LONG TERM...Weitlich AVIATION...Fehling