091
FXUS62 KMLB 101514
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1114 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Weakening thunderstorm outflow boundary will continue moving
southeast into the Greater Orlando area over the next few hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
ahead of the boundary. Some MVFR Ceilings will persist across this
area as well before becoming scattered this afternoon. Will keep
vicinity thunder in the MCO terminal through 01z given the
lingering boundary, moisture and instability. Can`t rule out a
strong or severe storm but not confident enough on timing and
exact location of where convection could redevelop this afternoon.
Orlando is on the border of the SPC Slight Risk area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Not much has changed from the previous discussion. An MCS moved
south this morning from North Florida which threatened the
northern portions of the CWA, but the majority of the convection
with near severe winds remained north of the the area and is
currently pushing off the east coast of North Florida. While the
main threat for severe weather isn`t expected until midday, we
are continuing to monitor outflow boundaries within the unstable
air mass which could trigger thunderstorm development a tad
earlier than expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Today-Tonight...An approaching cold front from the north will keep
ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of the
waters today, with the front then pushing southward through the area
tonight. W/SW winds up to 10-15 knots become S/SW into the afternoon,
with wind speeds continuing to increase up to 15-20 knots offshore
out of the W/SW into tonight. Seas 2-4 feet, increasing up to 5
feet offshore late tonight.

Saturday-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions this
weekend. A cold front will settle into South Florida on Saturday,
with high pressure in its wake that will push off into the Atlantic
by Monday. Isolated storms are possible over the waters on Saturday
south of Sebastian Inlet and for all of the local waters by Monday
afternoon as moisture increases. A sea breeze should form both
afternoons this weekend, with afternoon winds becoming NE to E from
10-15 KT. By Monday, winds increase out of the SE, 12-17 KT during
the day. These winds may freshen further, approaching advisory
territory by Monday night ahead of a weather disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  70  85  66 /  40  30   0   0
MCO  95  74  92  67 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  95  72  88  70 /  20  20  10   0
VRB  97  71  90  68 /  20  20  20   0
LEE  92  73  90  67 /  30  40  10   0
SFB  95  73  91  67 /  30  30  10   0
ORL  94  73  92  68 /  20  30  10   0
FPR  97  70  91  67 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-
     254-259.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pena/Humphrey
LONG TERM...Forinash
AVIATION...Metz/Price