Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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602 FXUS64 KMOB 061809 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through much of this afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly inland areas where brief reductions in ceilings and visbys can be expected. Low clouds return tonight with some patchy fog. /13 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 An upper-level shortwave impulse, currently located over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, will continue to lift northeastward throughout the day today. In its wake, an upper ridge axis begins moving overhead tonight and shifts to our east on Tuesday. Overall, though, a general zonal flow pattern will prevail through the period. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer-like pattern. For today, a few isolated warm air advection showers will be possible this morning. Very similar to the past few days, diurnal heating, in combination with weak forcing from the shortwave aloft and ample moisture in place, should allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon, primarily over the northern half of our CWA. Rain chances quickly decrease by the evening and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating and the ridge axis moving overhead. Tomorrow`s coverage is a little less certain as the ridge axis lingers overhead. Plenty of instability and moisture continues to reside over the area, but with a lack of any large scale lift, expecting only spotty showers/storms at best, with the highest chances (~30 percent) over our northwestern counties (as this region is further from the ridge axis). Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight, becoming a High risk tomorrow. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 88 72 89 74 89 68 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 40 50 40 Pensacola 73 85 74 86 76 86 71 82 / 10 10 0 10 0 40 40 50 Destin 73 83 74 85 76 84 72 82 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 40 50 Evergreen 68 89 69 92 72 88 65 82 / 0 20 0 10 10 50 60 50 Waynesboro 69 89 70 92 72 89 64 81 / 10 30 0 10 20 50 60 30 Camden 68 89 70 93 72 87 64 79 / 10 30 10 10 20 60 60 40 Crestview 67 89 68 90 71 89 66 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 40 50 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob