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000
FXUS63 KMPX 140829
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
  conditions this afternoon as RH values drop into the upper
  teens to lower 20s.

- Soaking rain expected Monday night into Wednesday. Most
  locations should see over an inch of rain along with a few
  rumbles of thunder. The heaviest rain will be late Tuesday.

- Below-normal temperatures late this week into through next
  weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing
  lows are likely Thursday night through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No major changes from the previous
forecast.

Today will be dry, but not as warm as yesterday. Winds
will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts near 20
mph. These wind speeds are below the threshold for a red flag
conditions. However, we do expect elevated fire weather this
afternoon into the early evening as RH values drop into the
upper teens to lower 20s. We`ve been over-achieving all spring
with humidity coming in below the forecast guidance, so for that
reason we adjusted the dewpoints down to the low end of the
range in order to decrease humidity values.

Overnight into Monday warm air advection will once again spread
across the region. HiRes models are in good agreement with
showers and even a few thunderstorms developing across the
Dakotas and moving into Minnesota Monday morning. These should
be along and north of I-94. Winds will become easterly ahead of
the next storm system.

Monday night through Wednesday, a large storm system will lift
up from the south and bring widespread rain across the region.
Most of the rain will fall late Tuesday as an area of
thunderstorms across Iowa lifts up into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
These storms will be weakening as they move north, but there
could be enough instability lingering across southern Minnesota
for some stronger storms to hang on and produce hail or wind.
SPC has issued a Day3 marginal risk for the southern 2 tiers of
Minnesota. Overall the severe risk is low, and this marginal
risk is mainly tied to Tuesday evening as storms move up from
Iowa. The shear is there, but the instability is not. The
surface low will move into Wisconsin on Wednesday, with wrap
around showers lingering across the region.

Thursday through Saturday, cold air will move across the region.
Highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees, and overnight lows
could fall below freezing. Overall, this period is dry, but
there are some small chances for rain/snow showers with the cold
air advection. Winds will be out of the northwest, but there is
uncertainty in the speeds. The GFS has a much deeper low across
Quebec, and stronger cold air advection and winds than the GEFs
ensemble guidance, and other global model suites. For that
reason, not anticipating winds to be as strong as shown in the
forecast soundings. Looking ahead, the 8-14 day outlook does
have above normal temperatures returning for the end of April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Clear skies expected through the period. Winds will turn
northwest behind a front by the early overnight, then becoming
gustier midday Sunday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR early, then MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -TSRA likely. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely. Wind N bcmg NE 20G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Borghoff