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000
FXUS63 KMQT 252002
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
402 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions continue this
  afternoon with minimum relative humidities around 20-25
  percent across much of the area and wind gusts remaining
  mainly below 15 mph.
- Borderline to elevated fire weather conditions are expected
  Friday as RHs dip into the mid 20 to 30%, temps get into the
  mid 50s to low 60s, and S to SE`rly winds gust up to as high
  as 25 mph over the higher elevations and downslope areas.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into
  early next week, bring rain showers and thunderstorms across
  our area. More of the rainfall arrives with the second low.
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday,
  with the greatest chances over the south central and east.
  The severe weather threats are marginally severe hail and
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

RAP analysis shows the high pressure is currently centered over
southern Ontario, extending over the Great Lakes Basin with mid
level ridging over the Plains and a trough over the southwestern
U.S.. WV imagery shows a significantly dry air mass over the CWA
which is yielding clear skies and warmer than normal temps. With the
high pressure shifting east through tonight, southeast flow will
continue to keep the east cooler. An easterly wind component has
been observed along Lake Superior, resulting from the lake breeze
component, keeping those along the immediate lakeshore cooler. Highs
in the east are expected to peak in the upper 40s to mid 50s this
afternoon with low 50s to low 60s over the west; some mid 60s are
possible in the far west where there is downsloping flow. Mixing has
lowered RHs into the 20% range this afternoon save for areas with
onshore flow off Lake Michigan, but luckily wind gusts are expected
to continue mainly below 15 mph as winds aloft are also light. This
will continue borderline elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon over the east and into the early evening hours over the
west. Be mindful of burn restrictions.

The trough over the southwest takes a negative tilt tonight as it
lifts northeast into NE/KS. With sfc high pressure and mid level
ridging still over the Great Lakes, the dry weather under clear
skies continues. While better subsidence will be located well east
of the UP, radiative cooling should bring lows into the mid 20s to
upper 30s with colder temps in the east. Light southeast winds
continue, stronger over the west where there is downsloping. Model
soundings indicate that the nocturnal inversion layer should prevent
stronger winds aloft from mixing down until late tonight/early
Friday morning over the far west, keeping gusts mainly below 20 mph
until Friday morning. Meanwhile, a low pressure system set to impact
the UP this weekend associated with the trough will be developing in
the lee of the central Rockies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The high pressure moves out Friday and gives way to a more active
period this weekend through next week, with rain showers and
thunderstorms moving into the far west as soon as late Friday
afternoon/early Friday evening. There is a marginal risk for some
severe weather Saturday as showers and thunderstorms continue across
our area while the low pressure system moves into Lake Superior.
Behind this low, a second low pressure system brings more showers
and thunderstorms back across the region early next week. While it
looks like we will receive a quick reprieve from rainfall come next
Tuesday, more shortwave lows look to impact our area by the end of
the extended period.

The dry weather continues into the first half of Friday as the high
pressure responsible continues to leave the area for the Atlantic
off of the New England coast. In it`s wake, a 986mb low over the
Central Plains lifts towards Lake Superior throughout the day,
increasing cloud cover across the U.P. by the afternoon hours. With
the sun being out even into the early afternoon hours over the west
though, and with the antecedent dry air conditions near the surface,
thinking the RHs will bottom out to the mid 20 percents to around 30
percent across the interior areas of the U.P. by early Friday
afternoon. In addition, with winds increasing from the south to
southeast ahead of the approaching low to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph in the higher elevations and downslope areas, we could see
borderline to elevated fire weather conditions across the area
Friday as temps will be fairly similar to today. Therefore, follow
all burn restrictions put out by your local DNRs on Friday. As the
warm front of the low starts moving into the far west Friday
afternoon, we begin seeing some showers and thunderstorms
developing. As the antecedent dry air in the lower levels finally
gives way to the precipitation aloft, the rain showers and
thunderstorms spread into the rest of the U.P. from west to east
throughout the rest of Friday night. As the low`s center looks to
enter into far western Lake Superior Saturday morning, a dry slot
behind the warm front looks to move over our neck-of-the-woods. This
will reduce the shower and thunderstorm activity across the area
Saturday morning, and could even open up some spots of sunshine in
the cloud cover. Should we see some patches of sunshine in the
clouds Saturday, then expect the chances for severe weather to
increase, particularly across the south central and east. Currently,
most of the CAMs has severe thunderstorms missing our CWA to the
south and east of us. However, with MUCAPEs around 1000 J/kg in the
GFS and 2000 J/kg in the NAM, and with 0-6 km bulk shear being
around 50 kts, severe weather is certainly a possibility up here
Saturday (10 to 15% chance of seeing marginally severe hail and/or
wind). The only limiting factor will be the uplift; thus, if we get
some breaks in the clouds Saturday, expect our severe weather
chances to increase. In addition to the severe weather, we could
also see some heavy rainfall in some isolated spots, even though the
model consensus keeps the heaviest precipitation amounts out of our
area Saturday through Saturday night. Therefore, while it is
certainly not expected, there is a small chance (20 to 30% chance)
that some low-lying poor drainage areas could see some localized
flash flooding should multiple storms pass over.

A quick reprieve from the precipitation could (30 to 40% chance) come
early Sunday morning before more rainfall moves over the area the
rest of Sunday through Monday as a second low pressure system lifts
through the Upper Midwest. While bulk shear values are greater
Sunday, there is almost no CAPE to work with. Therefore, no severe
weather is expected Sunday through Sunday night as the warm front
passes through our area. That being said, the models do show higher
QPF totals, with many areas possibly receiving over an inch of
rainfall. Therefore, this second low pressure system is the one most
likely to bring a soaking rainfall to our area these next several
days. In addition, I`m thinking the chances for flash flooding will
be ever so slightly higher over the poor drainage areas. As we move
into Monday and Monday night, the cold front of the low moves
through Upper Michigan, bringing additional rainfall to the area.
Given that we would then be under the warm sector of the low ahead
of the cold front, with 0-6 km bulk shears near 45 kts and MUCAPEs
currently near 500 to 1000 J/kg, severe weather could (10% chance)
be a possibility Monday. The rainfall finally leaves the east Monday
night as weak ridging builds in from the west.

We look to get a quick reprieve from the rainfall next Tuesday as
high pressure ridging quickly slides through the Upper Midwest.
However, model guidance brings a shortwave low from the Northern
U.S. Rockies back across us come Tuesday night/Wednesday. As we look
ahead beyond the extended period, it appears that an active weather
pattern will continue, as the CPC still has above normal chances for
precipitation and above normal chances for temps for the 8 to 14 day
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With high pressure currently centered over southern Ontario shifting
east toward southern Quebec, VFR conditions will continue at all
sites through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be generally light
through most of tonight, mainly staying under 10 kts. Late tonight,
increasing winds above nocturnal inversion may lead to conditions
approaching LLWS criteria at IWD/CMX. Opted to add this into the IWD
TAF where there is the highest confidence; will continue to monitor
this with future TAF issuances. High clouds move in Friday morning
ahead of the next system with some gusty south to southeast winds up
to 20-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts into
this evening. Southeast winds will increase to around 20 kts tonight
with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday and Friday night; the
strongest winds are expected along the U.S. Canadian border waters
of eastern Lake Superior. The low pressure then tracks northeast
across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday night
resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming northeast
on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds remain
around 20-30 knots through Sunday night with a few gale force gusts
to 35 knots possible near Isle Royale and across the west half of
Lake Superior. Another low pressure system moves through the Upper
Great Lakes Monday into Monday night with winds up to 30 knots
yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish
back below 20 kts by Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...07