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000
FXUS66 KMTR 170359
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
859 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Warm, dry, and quiet this week as high pressure dominates. Onshore
flow and increased cloudiness late week as weak trough moves in.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Most locations across the forecast area are warmer compared to 24
hours ago, as much as a few to 13 degrees Fahrenheit warmer. 8 pm
readings are in the 50s to mid 60s and it`s milder than it has
been on the mountain summits too. Bodega Bay and Fort Ord
profilers show warmer lower level temperatures i.e. the marine
layer temperature inversion. Recent Oakland upper air soundings
including this afternoon`s sounding also show steady warming
taking place through much of the lower to mid troposphere with a
high pressure system moving in from the west. Cirrus clouds will
continue to drift through the upper level ridge tonight. Overnight
low temperatures in the hills/mtns will stay milder than recent
days, hovering in the mid 50s to lower 60s possibly getting warmer
over the coastal ranges Wednesday morning as the lower to mid
level thermal ridge strengthens a bit more. For additional info on
the forecast please see discussions below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Mostly clear skies across the region, which will persist through
the next few afternoons. Wednesday looks to be near the warmest
day of the week with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 70s
inland, and in the 60s to near 70s along the coast. Inland valley
locations may see the 80 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 154 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The long term remains mostly dry as well. Pleasant temperatures
last through the period, but many location will see a very slight
cool down Friday as a weak trough breaks down the ridge and
deepens the marine layer. Increased overnight/morning cloudiness,
especially along the coast, will accompany the trough as onshore
flow and associated moisture increases. Overall no impactful
weather to mention throughout the forecast period. Even though the
next 7 days remain dry, we keep a good tap of onshore flow and
exceptional overnight humidity recovery for any inland location
that do dry out during the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR with moderate to breezy onshore winds. Winds will become light
with a variation of onshore/offshore direction tonight through
Wednesday morning. Models show agreement that North Bay terminals
may see a reduction of visibility and lower ceilings early Wednesday
morning, with lower confidence that Monterey Bay will reach as low
as North Bay with IFR/LIFR conditions. VFR is expected to return
near 17-18Z as diurnal heating takes into effect.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. W/NW breezy winds will
diminish to light tonight before rebuilding to breezy by Wednesday
afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the early morning of Wednesday
with onshore winds diminishing overnight. Models suggest lower
ceilings and visibility but low confidence that it will become lower
than MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 426 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Ridging continues to dominate, bringing fair weather through much
of the week. Strong and gusty northwest winds are expected
through much of the week, with gale-force gusts expected over the
far northern waters this afternoon through late tonight. Moderate
period northwest swell continues to move through the waters this
week, though shortens in period to around 8-10 seconds near
Wednesday. Light, longer period (18 seconds) southerly swell will
also be present through the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Canepa
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...AC

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