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000
FXUS63 KOAX 211715
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low relative humidities of 20 to 25% will bring elevated fire
  danger this afternoon.

- A cold front tomorrow night will bring the potential (50 to
  75% chance) for rain across much of eastern Nebraska and
  southwestern Iowa. Highest rain chances will be south of I-80.

- Signal is increasing for a more active weather pattern this
  upcoming weekend. Several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy
  rain appear possible at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

     Today through Wednesday Night...

Cold temperatures near or just below freezing this morning will
quickly warm up into the 60s by this afternoon. With dewpoints in the
low 20s, relative humidities in the afternoon will drop as low
as 20 to 25 percent. This will bring a period of elevated fire
danger between noon and 5 PM. This risk will be mitigated due to
the surface winds remaining weak (5 to 10 mph). Even warmer
temperatures in the 70s are expected tomorrow afternoon before a
cold front comes through tomorrow night.

Synoptic scale forcing from a low-amplitude shortwave and
additional lift behind the aforementioned cold front will bring
sufficient forcing for ascent for convection to develop
tomorrow evening into the overnight hours. Isolated showers may
begin to develop in east-central Nebraska and southwest Iowa
after 1 PM (~20% chance of rain). More widespread precipitation
(50 to 75% chance of rain) is expected after 7 PM as the front
pushes into southeast Nebraska. Rain should move south and east
of the region by 7 AM Tuesday morning. Relatively weak forcing
and a dry boundary layer will keep rain light for the most part,
with rainfall amounts expected to largely remain under 0.1
inches.

The middle of next week will feature mild weather, with seasonal
temperatures (highs in the 60s) and dry weather Tuesday and
Wednesday.


     Thursday through Saturday...

Consensus continues to grow amongst medium range guidance in a
more active period of weather heading into this upcoming
weekend. Confidence has increased in troughing over the western
CONUS with embedded shortwaves periodically ejecting out into
the central Plains. This will bring several rounds of rain and
thunderstorms to the region beginning Thursday night and
potentially lasting through next weekend. Specifics on exact
number and timing of these disturbances in addition to the magnitude
and timing of low level moisture return remain unclear. There
is still substantial spread in models at this point in time.
Nonetheless, all can expect a high chance (70 to 80%) of
rain/thunderstorms at some point next weekend. GEFS and ECMWF
Ens show PWAT values over an inch returning into the region by
Friday. As such, heavy rain may be a concern for portions of
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with increasing mid
to high level clouds overnight into early Monday. Expect
northwest winds early in the period to become more westerly this
afternoon and eventually southerly this evening, largely
remaining below 12 kts. Speeds will then pick up Monday morning
with gusts over 30 kts expected. Before the increasing speeds,
expect a period of low level wind shear with 45 to 50 kt
southwest winds around 1500 ft agl. Highest chances will be at
OFK and LNK, as strongest winds aloft look to hold off at OMA
until surface winds increase, though can`t completely rule out
needing a mention in later forecasts.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...CA