281
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure and a frontal boundary shift farther offshore
through Wednesday. High pressure will then take control of the
weather from Wednesday afternoon into at least Friday. A
weakening frontal system will approaches for the second half of
the weekend, followed by high pressure building toward Monday.
A warm front will approach late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Tstms made it into NYC and points north/west as well into parts
of S CT this evening. One weakening cell was near HVN as of
03Z, with a stronger cell over nrn Middlesex CT. Showers still
linger in their wake back into ern PA, so previous chance PoP
forecast for the overnight still stands.

Meanwhile, moisture trapped under a low level inversion will
keep us cloudy overnight. Low temperatures should be close to
normal, in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Cloudy with a low chance of lingering showers to start the day
Wednesday. Expecting the threat of showers to end by noon as high
pressure slowly builds in. Anticipating partial sunshine for the
afternoon, but there`s low confidence in the cloud cover forecast
during this time. Some guidance even suggests a chance of afternoon
showers in spots with lingering moisture and weak shortwave lift.
The cloud uncertainty has implications on the high temperature
forecast as well. Would be more inclined to go with NBM 50th
percentile if there was higher confidence in a mostly sunny
afternoon. Hedged by going with an even blend of 50th percentile and
the cooler deterministic NBM (which was closer to the 25th
percentile). High temperatures will be above normal, especially west
of the Hudson River, where highs are expected to be in the mid 70s.
Dry weather for Wednesday night with weak high pressure in control.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the long term. A
repeating question throughout the period will be how long mid and
upper level ridging can hold as disturbances from the west will
attempt to break down any ridging that is in place from time to
time.

On Thursday modest ridging works into the area as thicknesses climb
some. Clouds likely linger through a good portion of the morning
with an inversion down low in the profile which may prevent mixing
initially. Towards afternoon expect more mixing with partial
sunshine with 850 mb temps getting at or just above 10 C expect
temperatures to get above normal, and potentially well above normal
further inland away from the coast. Interior locations will have a
chance of reaching the lower 80s. Went above NBM deterministic as
probabilities point to a warmer day. It should remain primarily dry
with only a minimal / slight shower chance across northeastern
zones. Thursday night the winds will shift to the NE as high
pressure begins to nudge down from the north across Eastern Canada
and the frontal boundary is sent further south into Friday. A cooler
day across the region takes place Friday with a NE to E onshore wind
bringing temperatures closer to normal. It may take awhile for the
cooler ocean air to entrain further inland so went above the NBM
with regard to temps, especially further west.

The progression of the next disturbance during the weekend continues
to slow. Have kept all of Saturday dry despite plenty of mid and
upper level cloud cover. The upper level ridge axis doesn`t pass
until Saturday evening. Primarily have kept Saturday dry and
introduce low end PoPs for the afternoon and evening, and further
west. Have the high end chance PoPs coming in towards daybreak
Sunday and continue through the day for the most part. Stuck fairly
close to NBM PoPs with just a few manual tweaks. The frontal
boundary will weaken as it slams into the ridge in place, thus
precip amounts are expected to be light. Amounts at this time look
to be on the order of a half inch or less.

There appears to be good model agreement that the cold frontal
boundary falls apart as it moves through late Sunday night into
early Monday. The mid levels should dry out and bring precip to an
end, however the question remains as to how quickly the low levels
will dry out for the day Monday. This will greatly impact the
temperatures forecast for Monday. The global guidance suggests
enough ridging works in to provide enough drying and mixing and a
return to some sun resulting in seasonably warm temperatures as 850
mb temps warm again into early next week. A warm front will then
attempt to approach from the west and possibly lift north later
Tuesday of next week. There remains uncertainty as to whether the
warm front will remain nearby or lift to the north late Tuesday and
will thus affect temperatures across the area.  Mid level energy
from the west will attempt to break down any riding in the mid
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wave of low pressure along a stationary front south and west of
the area will pass to the south and east of Long Island tonight.
Weak high pressure will follow for Wednesday.

Tstms that impacted any terminals have weakened and are passing
east. Scattered showers and mainly MVFR cigs expected for the
overnight into the morning hours for most of the NYC metro
terminals, with IFR for KLGA. Mainly IFR cigs expected for the
terminals to the north/east across the lower Hudson Valley and
across Long Island/S CT, with improvement to MVFR then VFR
during the morning hours.

MVFR cigs should take longer to improve at the Long Island and
S CT terminals.

NE winds mostly 10 kt or less (strongest at KLGA) should back
more to the N overnight. Late morning/afternoon S-SE sea breezes
expected at all the terminals but KSWF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible for fluctuating cigs overnight into Wed morning.

Low confidence in MVFR at KJFK, KEWR and KTEB. Cigs may be
mostly VFR tonight or become VFR earlier Wed morning than TAF
timing.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: MVFR cigs possible.

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR cond in the
afternoon and at night.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient remains in place, with an extended
period of sub advisory conditions. Ocean seas won`t start to
climb above 2 or 3 feet until late Sunday and Sunday night
when marginal SCA conditions may develop ahead of an approaching
front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/JE/BG
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE