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000
FXUS64 KOUN 201959
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
259 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move across far southern Oklahoma and western north Texas through
the afternoon. A few light showers are possible as far north as
I-40 through the early evening. The precipitation across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas should diminish quickly during the
evening, as a shortwave trough moves east across Texas.

Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will approach the southern
Plains from the north tonight into Sunday. This may provide enough
lift for widely scattered light showers mainly from midnight into
early Sunday morning. Clouds should decrease at least by afternoon
as better lift moves east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface high pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma during the
first half of Sunday night will result light and variable winds.
With a mainly clear sky, temperatures will fall rather quickly
around sunset.  Although the airmass is not expected to be overly
dry, parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma should keep a
light wind overnight. This may result in some sheltered areas
reaching the mid 30s by early Monday morning.

A shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest Tuesday, will help push another cold front into Oklahoma.
The front is expected to stall across northern Texas late Tuesday
into Wednesday. With a low amplitude ridge upstream and
questionable moisture return, there is some uncertainty if
thunderstorms will develop along the front Tuesday afternoon or
evening. For now will keep chances low for Tuesday afternoon and
night.

Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday into Thursday as
an upper trough approaches the central U.S.  At this time it appears
instability and shear will be more than sufficient for severe
thunderstorms, especially Thursday.

The weather pattern appears to remain unsettled through next
weekend, as another trough takes shape across the western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Another area of rain , thunderstorms and associated MVFR
conditions will impact taf sites along and south of I-40 this
afternoon. DUA could see these conditions linger through the
evening hours. Farther north VFR conditions will continue. Gusty
northeast winds will relax around 00Z and then remain rather light
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  64  41  70 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         44  63  40  71 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  64  41  70 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           38  62  40  76 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     41  64  40  72 /  10  10   0   0
Durant OK         46  65  42  69 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30