Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 250748
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions will be windy today and tonight, with southeast to
  south winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to around 50
  mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 5am CDT today to 5am
  CDT Tuesday.

- Numerous showers and some thunderstorms are expected today
  into Tuesday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
  Heavy rain and lightning are primary hazards this afternoon
  and tonight.

- There is some potential for gusty winds and hail Tuesday in
  portions of southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky from mid
  morning to early afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Everything is still on track to give us windy conditions today
into tonight. Latest surface observations show winds over
western Missouri and western Arkansas already gusting into the
25-35 mph range with some isolated higher gusts. These winds
will eventually reach areas west of the Mississippi River and
increase by daybreak, spreading into southern Illinois and and
far west Kentucky by midday, then across the rest of our area by
00z Tuesday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will become common
through the day, and the gusts will persist into the evening
hours, especially east of the Mississippi River. Breaks in the
clouds could lead to better mixing, and thus some localized
higher gusts. The Wind Advisory runs from 10z today to 10z
Tuesday, but the peak of the winds will be from late morning
through around 06z, gradually decreasing from west to east
from early evening.

Models continue to show a surface low, currently over southwest
Kansas, slowly moving northeast over Wisconsin by 12z Tuesday.  The
associated cold front will reach areas just west of the PAH forecast
area by 06z Tuesday, moving through the middle Mississippi and lower
Ohio valleys late tonight through the day Tuesday.  Showers will
move into portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this
morning, slowly spreading east across our area by early this
evening.  Numerous showers are expected from late this afternoon and
overnight.  Thunderstorms are possible in southeast Missouri by late
this afternoon, then across our entire area this evening as the cold
front starts to push through our area. Convection will continue
mainly east of the Mississippi River after 06z and into Tuesday
morning.  On Tuesday, with the front pushing into eastern portions
of the PAH forecast area as we begin to get some daytime
heating, models show modest 0-1km CAPE values and strong wind
shear in our far eastern counties, so an isolated strong to
severe storm is not out of the question. This should be a fairly
small window of time for this potential, primarily from mid
morning to early afternoon, then the front will move off to our
east and things will dry out.

Behind the cold front, surface high pressure will build over the
north central U.S., gradually sinking southeast through the end
of the week. Temperatures will cool down to below normal
readings Tuesday night into Wednesday night, with some areas
seeing overnight lows around the freezing mark. We will then see
a warming trend for the end of the work week and through the
weekend to well above normal readings. Models are showing the
potential for a frontal boundary to set up north of our area
late in the weekend, which brings back some chances of showers
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Clouds will gradually thicken through the morning as low
pressure approaches the region from the west. Model guidance
continues to delay the arrival of MVFR cigs due to stubborn dry
air in the column. The main concern in the near term will be the
significant increase in winds as the pressure gradient tightens.
South winds between 15-25 kts and gusts 30-40 kts will become
likely by the morning.

As moisture increases through Monday afternoon, MVFR cigs will
begin to arrive at KCGI around 18z and 23-02z from west to east
across the rest of the terminals. The other concern is a period
of pcpn Monday evening into Monday night with the arrival of a
cold front. Have included PROB30s from 23-05z as high-resolution
models indicate the potential for an embedded squall line that
will be capable of causing brief MVFR/IFR vsbys. IFR cigs are
also possible at KCGI/KMVN. This is when the highest winds are
expected with south winds around 20-25 kts and gusts 40-45 kts
as a nocturnal low-level jet ramps up. Towards the end of the
TAF period, pcpn will taper off to lingering -SHRA, but winds
will still be quite breezy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT /6 AM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DW


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