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000
FXUS63 KPAH 170837
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
337 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in eastern
  portions of the region through midday.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will return late
  Thursday morning through Thursday night, with some severe
  storms possible.

- Dry and cooler conditions can be expected Friday through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through midday ahead of an upper level trof moving
over the region. Models continue to show MU CAPE values up to
around 1500 J/kg over our eastern counties through the morning,
and with dew points in the lower 60s and daytime heating, SPC
has included our eastern counties in a Marginal Risk. Convection
chances will end by early afternoon as the trof moves off to
our east. Breezy conditions can be expected today with southwest
winds shifting to the west this afternoon, with speeds of 13-20
kts, with gusts of 25-30 kts. The highest gusts will be across
our northern half of counties. Dry conditions can be expected
from mid afternoon today through early Thursday morning.

Models take a surface low from northeast Oklahoma/southwest
Missouri at 18z Thursday into northeast Indiana by 06z Friday.
The low will lift a warm front through the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
then drag a cold front through the PAH forecast area Thursday
night. Dew points will increase back into the lower to middle
60s south of the warm front. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms can be expected along and out ahead of the cold
front Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. MU CAPE values
across our area will increase to 1500 to 2500 J/kg with surface
LIs of -3 to -6.  SPC has included our entire area in a Slight
Risk Thursday into Thursday night. Went with categorical PoPs
Thursday afternoon in our west, and Thursday evening for our
entire region. Convection will end from west to east from late
evening Thursday through 12z Friday. Rainfall totals will be
from a half inch to around an inch, with localized higher
amounts. Dry conditions are expected Friday into early next
week.

High temperatures today and Thursday will be in the lower to
middle 80s, cooling down to the middle to upper 60s for Friday
through the weekend. A warming trend will begin Monday as winds
shift back to the south with a surface high moving off to our
south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
shift east of the forecast area and the terminals by 8-10z at
the last. MVFR cigs will follow the precipitation, with a few
hours of low MVFR conditions expected as well. Skies will clear
from west to east after 10-14z. S-SW winds will be generally
around 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts overnight. Winds will
increase and gradually veer to the west, sustained at 12-18 kts
with gusts of 22-28 kts through the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DWS