091
FXUS61 KRLX 030036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
836 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry and warm weather tonight into Friday.
A cold front brings showers and storms Friday afternoon into the
weekend as it washes out over the area. Active next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM Thursday...

Diurnal anabatic surface flow converging along the spine of the
northern mountains has resulted in a healthy Cu field with a
few isolated light showers at present. Have inserted the chance
(~20%) for isolated showers over the next few hours in this
area, with an isolated rumble of thunder not out of the
question. The chance for precipitation quickly diminishes near
or shortly after sunset. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 142 PM Thursday...

High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the
area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves
north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under
a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday`s afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS
increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These
ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.

Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild
temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm
surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with
few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly
flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the
lower 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and
storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be
followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With
the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to
around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of
year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the
period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water
issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent
dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud
cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There
is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation
expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another
shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a
low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually
move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal
to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and
additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the
region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are
expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized
storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability
increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the
weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the
potential for flooding issues increasing during this period,
particularly Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 820 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions persist across much of the area tonight amid
increasing upper level clouds and calm or light and variable
flow. Some patchy valley fog is possible late tonight, but
should mainly remain confined to the deeper river valleys of
southern West Virginia. Did code in mist at EKN late tonight,
but confidence in restrictions is low at this point. Any fog
quickly lifts/dissipates after sunrise, giving way to gradually
lowering CIGs throughout the day, and the chance for ISOL/SCT
showers/storms during the afternoon/evening hours as a cold
front slowly moves toward the region. While confidence is high
in some shower/storm activity across the area, confidence in
location is low at this point, thus, have just coded VCSH into
the TAFs beginning tomorrow afternoon, with no restrictions at
this point. Some MVFR VSBY restrictions with heavier showers and
ISOL thunderstorms are certainly possible however during the
afternoon/evening hours. Surface flow on Friday will be light
and generally out of the southwest, but could be variable at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium Friday afternoon/evening.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR VSBY could occur w/ fog at EKN late
tonight. MVFR VSBY is possible Friday afternoon/evening w/
heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from Friday
night into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW