843
FXUS61 KRLX 051437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1037 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this
weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1035 AM Sunday...

Updated chances of precipitation and cloud cover based on latest
radar, satellite, and meso model trends.


As of 640 AM Sunday...

Minor changes made to PoPs to align with the current track of
showers in the area this morning. Otherwise, the forecast
generally remains on track.

As of 350 AM Sunday...

Showers and isolated storms continue to progress across the area as
a shortwave lifts northward early this morning. Some areas of
fog are also developing in locations where skies have at least
partially cleared and winds have calmed. Early morning fog
should dissipate later this morning.

A brief lull in precipitation may occur around daybreak, then activity
is expected to pick up once again as instability becomes
moderate to strong for the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a
strong system pivoting over Canada steers a cold front towards
the area. The front should reach the CWA late today and then
ease eastward overnight, with showers and storms remaining a
possibility out ahead of and along the front.

SPC has included the northwestern quadrant of the CWA in a
marginal severe weather risk for later today as isolated storms
be capable of producing damaging winds or perhaps hail. Heavy
downpours within storms could also cause localized flash
flooding if they occur over locations that have already been
subjected to high rainfall amounts.

High temperatures for today are expected to range from mid 70s
to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will then lower back into the 50s to 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Unsettled weather opens up the work week after a brief
   reprieve late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

 * Temperatures gradually climb through the week, contributing
   to warm and muggy conditions that will help daily storm
   development.

After a brief lull in activity from late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, active weather returns in earnest for the start
of the new work week. Upper level ridging will be swept offshore
as a trough and associated shortwave energy encroach from the
west. This will usher in a surface southern stream disturbance
through the course of the day Monday, making it as far north as
the northern panhandle of West Virginia by the evening
timeframe. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the end of weekend cold frontal passage, but dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will ensure an unstable environment for
convection to prosper once more during peak heating hours on
Monday. As has been the case the past several days, additional
rainfall will continue to deplete flash flood guidance, and may
impose localized concerns pending radar trends.

Unsettled weather remains intact on Tuesday as a developing
system in the Upper Midwest latches onto the lingering southern
stream disturbance loitering about along what will become a warm
front. This will yield afternoon temperatures to climb back into
the 70s and 80s and maintain the humid airmass still parked
overhead. Shower and thunderstorm chances flourish once more
through the day Tuesday, with similar hazards to monitor of
local flash flooding and lightning within sprouting
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Daily chances for showers and storms remain present for the
   second half of the work week.

 * Strong to severe storms may be possible Wednesday and
   Thursday, along with the growing concern for flash flooding.

 * Cold front anticipated to sweep through by the end of the
   work week, but active weather remains even in its wake.

The daily chance for showers and storms shows no sign of giving
up during the extended portion of the forecast. This will be
under the guise of an upper level low over the Rockies
continuing to pump moisture and shortwave energy through the
heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians. A surface
warm front will impose a steady climb in high temperatures,
maxing out in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Diurnally
driven convection prevails within this warm and humid
atmosphere, and could garner strong to severe characteristics by
midweek as instability becomes more established over the area.

Heading into Thursday, convection coverage will become more
prevalent as a cold front enters into the Ohio Valley. With warm
and humid conditions preceding the boundary, coupled with
increasing ascent as the front approaches, strong to severe
weather could be present once more Thursday afternoon into the
evening. However, models are still undecided on the placement of
the front during optimal peak heating hours. Hydro concerns
will also remain at the forefront of weather hazards as soil
conditions continue to be tested by day to day heavy downpours
from passing showers and storms. A grand total of over two
inches of rain could be feasible for the forecast area between
the time of writing (Sunday) and into next weekend.

The front is progged to sweep through sometime between Thursday
night and Friday, but the post-frontal environment will still
remain unstable in which active weather rolls into the weekend
as well. Temperatures will trend cooler in the wake of the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM Sunday...

Restrictions due to valley fog and some low stratus along the
mountains are expected to improve early this morning while a
lull in precipitation occurs. Shower and storm activity should
increase again during the day, with most robust storms
occurring this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms could be
capable of producing strong wind gusts or hail. While VFR is
generally expected outside of any convection today, periodic
reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible during heavier downpours
or storms. Precipitation continues into tonight as a cold front
eases across the area, then flight conditions may deteriorate
in low clouds or fog late in the TAF period.

5-12kt winds are expected to veer from southerly to a
west/southwest direction during the day. Winds become light and
variable for tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from the
forecast today. MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible in
heavier showers or any storms. Extent/intensity of restrictions
due to fog/stratus tonight may also vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB