Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 251220
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
520 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There is a chance for light showers for late tonight into Tuesday
morning, mainly for San Diego County from the coast to the
mountains. There will be periods of gusty west winds for the
mountains and deserts for late this afternoon through Tuesday
morning with the stronger gusts to 45 to 55 mph. Otherwise drier
and warmer through the middle of the week with weakening winds.
For Friday night through Monday, a slow moving low pressure system
will bring periods of precipitation with the most likely time for
heavier precipitation on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
A cool northwest flow pattern will persist into Tuesday with a
warming trend. HREF shows a chance for light showers for late
tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly for San Diego County from the
coast to the mountains. There will also be another round of gusty
west winds for the mountains and deserts for late this afternoon
into Tuesday morning with the stronger gusts along the desert
slopes of the mountains to 45 to 55 mph. High pressure aloft
will move inland across the western states on Wednesday with
additional warming of high temperatures for the mountains of as
much as 10 degrees with high temperatures for most areas on
Wednesday slightly below average.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
A low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will begin to
strengthen the onshore flow on Thursday with high temperatures
mostly a few degrees below average. The center of that low
pressure system is expected to be off the Pacific Northwest coast
on Thursday, moving southward off the California coast on Friday
and Saturday, then moving slowly eastward and inland for Sunday
and Monday.

Cluster analysis shows the relatively wetter clusters for Saturday
are those that are slightly faster and farther east with the
placement of the low pressure system while those that are
relatively wetter for Sunday and Monday are those that are slower
with the eastward movement of the low pressure system.

There is the potential for locally heavy precipitation during next
weekend, especially along the coastal slopes of the mountains, but
lower confidence on when that might occur during the weekend.
NBM chances for measurable precipitation on the coastal slopes of
the mountains exceeds 80 percent for the weekend with around a 30
to 40 percent chance for 2 inches or more of rainfall in a 24
hour period for the wetter locations. Snow levels will lower from
around 6500 feet on Saturday to 5000 to 5500 feet for Saturday
night and Sunday with the greatest spread in the height of the
snow levels from Friday into Sunday, narrowing by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
250930Z...Coasts/Valleys...SCT clouds 2000-3000 feet MSL today and
tonight, except occasionally BKN mainly inland valleys of San Diego
County through 17Z. Then mostly clear through the afternoon. Low
clouds based around 2000-3000 feet MSL forming after 02Z, most
likely inland and in San Diego County. Tops rising to 4000 feet.
Patchy -DZ after 06Z into early Tuesday.

Mountains...SCT locally BKN clouds at 3000-4000 feet MSL through
17Z. Cumulus at 8000 feet MSL over ridges 17-01Z. Low clouds based
at 2000-3000 feet MSL with tops to 5000 feet forming on coastal
foothills after 02Z. Patchy -DZ after 06Z into early Tuesday.

Deserts...Mostly clear today and tonight. Northwest winds increasing
to 20-30 kt after 20Z in desert slopes and locally into adjacent
deserts. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains and pockets of
reduced vis 3-5SM in BLDU.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning continues through 6 AM, followed by a Small Craft
Advisory for the outer waters through 2 AM Tuesday. Gales and seas
will be hazardous early this morning, and for the outer waters again
this afternoon and evening. No additional marine hazards are
expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A High Surf Advisory is in the effect for the San Diego County
Beaches and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Orange County
through noon today. A large swell from the west-northwest will
produce breaking waves 4 to 7 feet, up to 10 feet in San Diego
County. Swell and surf will subside today.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until noon PDT today for San Diego County
     Coastal Areas.

     Beach Hazards Statement until noon PDT today for Orange County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...Gale Warning until 6 AM PDT early this morning for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for Waters from San
     Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out
     including San Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM


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