Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 241133
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Early this morning, an upper-level trough was digging southward over
the Four Corners region.  At the surface, strong southerly flow had
developed across west central Texas as winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts
over 30 were occurring.  The aforementioned upper low should track
through the Rockies and into western Kansas today.  A surface low
will deepen in the lee of the Rockies and gradually drift eastward.
As a result, the southerly flow at the surface will strengthen and
lead to winds of 20-35 MPH.  Some gusts near 50 are possible, but
this should be confined to the highest elevations, such as the hills
south of Abilene.  A Wind Advisory is therefore in effect today. The
southerly winds should also help to advect a moisture-rich
environment, characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s,
into the region ahead of a dryline that should mix eastward this
afternoon.  CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg are expected ahead of
the dryline this afternoon. In addition to the dryline, a Pacific
front should push eastward into Texas from the Desert Southwest.
Storms should develop just ahead of this cold front/dryline combo
late this afternoon and and evening, then push eastward. Shear
values of 75-100 m2/s2 should also be adequate enough for some
quarter size hail in some cores. However, the greater hazard should
be damaging winds as storms should quickly form into a line after
sunset and mix down the strong winds aloft. Storms will mainly
affect the Concho Valley and areas eastward into the Hill Country
overnight.  However, the SPC has the entire warning area in a
Marginal Risk today so all of counties could experience something.
Overnight, storms should push eastward, likely reaching the I-35
corridor before sunrise. Drier, more stable air should move in
behind the front and temperatures should drop to the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A large trough will develop across the Plain by the middle part of
next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicated that we will see the
main trough axis move through sometime around Wednesday. During
this time, we may see an isolated rain shower or two. The bulk of
the rain appears to favor locations to the east of our area. As
such, rain chances will remain minimal (20-30%) given the lack of
decent coverage across our area. Regardless of rain chance, for
locations that do see any rainfall, expect only a few one
hundredths of an inch in total. Otherwise, a warming trend will
ensue afterwards for the end of the week and the weekend. Higher
pressure will settle across the area and warm temperatures and
keep dry conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

MVFR ceilings moving in from the south through midday. Gusty
south winds can be expected until around 00. A few thunderstorms
could develop as early as 21Z, but these were left out of the
TAFs due to low confidence. Otherwise, a line of storms appears
likely to impact some TAF sites after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  48  69  35 /  30  30   0   0
San Angelo  79  47  70  36 /  10  40   0   0
Junction    75  48  73  41 /   0  70   0   0
Brownwood   71  48  70  36 /  10  70   0   0
Sweetwater  76  49  67  36 /  20  10  10   0
Ozona       77  46  67  41 /  10  40   0   0
Brady       71  49  69  38 /  10  80   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SK


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