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000
FXUS62 KTBW 091253
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
853 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Warm and rain-free conditions today with ridging over the region
as potent southern stream storm system continues to develop in
the Desert SW and move into W TX. Tightening pressure gradient at
the surface to produce breezy SE-S winds today otherwise no
significant weather concerns through tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected to continue with SCT-BKN cu field AOA 04k
ft and cirrus shield aloft. SE winds to increase with gusts 20+
kts thru the afternoon then decreasing this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern to start the week.
As the surface high has shifted off to the east, our winds have
followed suit and will remain easterly to southeasterly through the
day. Breezy conditions are expected today, but will increase further
on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next system that will sweep
through the region. As a more southerly flow is expected,
temperatures will respond accordingly with afternoon highs ticking
up each day. Look for highs today to reach into the middle 80s for
most. But by Wednesday, upper 80s to a few 90s will be seen
areawide.

A trough that is currently located over the Western U.S. will
approach our area by mid week. The surface low will lift across the
Ohio Valley and over the Great Lakes region on Thursday into Friday.
This system will drag a corresponding cold front across the Florida
Peninsula on Thursday and bring with it decent rain and storm
chances. Current timing moves a line of rain and storms into the
Nature Coast on Thursday morning, then impacting central Florida by
the afternoon time frame. Marginal instability ahead of the front
and decent shear will lead to a few stronger storms with this event.
The SPC currently has a Slight Risk of severe weather for portions
of Levy and Citrus counties with a Marginal Risk extending down into
the Tampa Bay area.

Behind the front, temperatures will fall into a more seasonable
range for the end of the week and into the weekend. Much drier air
is also expected for several days after the frontal passage. This
combination will make for very pleasant days and nice, cool nights.
Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
overnight lows dipping into the lower to middle 50s. As high
pressure remains in place through the weekend and into next week,
temperatures will quickly rebound once again with highs approaching
the 90 degree mark by next Monday. With cool overnight lows and a
few rather toasty days, the battle between Spring and Summer will be
evident across Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

High pressure shifts off to the east bringing gusty southeasterly
winds to the area. Elevated winds and seas will lead to SCEC for
some zones today. Winds will remain elevated on Wednesday and
increases further on Thursday with the approach of a cold front
during which time a small craft advisory may be needed. Rain and
storm chances will impact coastal waters on Thursday. Winds will
then turn northwesterly by Friday and decrease this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Low RH values are expected through much of the period, with Thursday
being the only exception. Rain and storm chances will increase on
Thursday morning with the approach of a frontal boundary and
continue into the evening hours. Gusty southeasterly winds are
anticipated ahead of the front, turning northwesterly on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  68  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  86  66  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  85  65  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  86  67  87  72 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  86  61  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  82  69  84  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD