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000
FXUS65 KTFX 171148
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

Areas of snow and gusty winds continue through this afternoon
before incoming high pressure arrives later this afternoon and
evening. Cool and dry conditions are expected to close out the
week, with a warming trend beginning across North Central and
Southwestern Montana over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Areas of snow expected today, particularly in the higher
terrain
-Cooler temperatures linger through Friday, with warmer
temperatures arriving for the weekend and next week

Short Term (through Friday)... Areas of snow continue across
North Central and Southwestern Montana this morning as an upper
level low slides into Northeastern Montana and North Dakota from
Alberta and Saskatchewan. As this low moves southeastward, deep
northerly flow will continue to generate mostly upslope snow, with
the highest amounts today expected to be in the Highwood, Little
Belt, and Snowy Mountains where as much as 8 to 10 inches of snow
are expected, with a secondary maxima of snowfall accumulations in
the Mountains of Madison and Gallatin Counties, where up to an
additional 3-6 inches will fall in the higher terrain. Outside of
these areas, snowfall will generally be light and should not
accumulate more than 2 or 3 inches. We will have to watch for some
isolated blowing and drifting snow across the plains as winds
increase to 20-30 mph this afternoon, but with only a few inches
of snow at most, it seems unlikely that this will be a widespread
issue and mainly confined to areas near fields that are barren
thanks to prescribed burns or other methods of plant matter
removal.

Any snow and wind should begin to dissipate this evening as a
surface high pressure begins to settle into the area from Canada,
gradually putting an end to the lingering snow showers and gusty
winds. This high pressure system will then linger across the area
through Thursday and Friday, keeping us cool but quiet to close
out the work week.

Extended (Saturday through next Wednesday)... A warming trend
will begin on Saturday as the high pressure system begins to slide
off to the east, allowing southwesterly flow to work into the
area and advect warmer air in from Northern California and Eastern
Oregon. While this should not be an eventful warmup on Saturday,
a passing disturbance on Sunday will bring some localized gusty
winds, mainly across the plains, and a few showers to the area
Sunday afternoon. While this small disturbance will prevent
further warming between Sunday and Monday, upper level ridging
will begin to build over the Northern Rockies early next week,
which will cause temperatures to continue to warm through the
middle of next week, with 60s and even some low 70s back in the
forecast by the middle of next week. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
545 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 (17/12Z TAF Period)

Mountain-obscuring low VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional IFR
conditions in snow and blowing snow will continue across North
Central, Central, and Southwest Montana will continue through at
least 16Z. Northerly winds will also mostly gust between 20 and 30
kt, but gusts up to 40 kt are possible over the plains, mainly
between through 21Z. Conditions will gradually improve to mostly
scattered to broken low VFR cloudiness from the northwest after 18Z
as the system starts exiting the area. However, scattered snow
showers with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions, possibly with a
thunderstorm or two, will likely not exit the area south of
Interstate 90 (including KEKS) until 00Z or so. Winds will also
decrease after 00Z, as skies become partly cloudy.
-Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  23  42  21 /  60  20  10   0
CTB  37  21  38  18 /  50   0   0   0
HLN  42  25  45  24 / 100  10  10  10
BZN  41  19  43  20 /  50  10   0  10
WYS  36   9  40  11 /  60  10  10   0
DLN  39  20  42  22 /  60  40   0  10
HVR  40  23  41  22 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  35  21  37  16 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Big Belt,
Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-
Gallatin Valley-Gates of the Mountains-Judith Basin County and
Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith
Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Gallatin
and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls