National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 201857
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Widespread convection ongoing across N TX is expected to expand
north somewhat this evening as mid level trough passes NW-SE
across the region. Again, SE OK is the most likely to experience
any additional rainfall with much lower chances northward. Cool
overnight temperatures area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Sfc high builds across the region Sunday providing a pleasant
early Spring day. Ideal radiational cooling conditions expected
Sunday night and a light freeze may be possible across far NE OK
into valleys of far NW AR.

Winds turn southerly on Monday and increase while temperatures
beginning a warming trend which will continue into Tuesday. The
next cold front remains timed to enter the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon with only minor influence on temperatures. Precip
chances with the frontal passage continue to appear very low with
meager instability and poor lapse rates in place.

Warm advection convection is likely to develop Tuesday night into
Wednesday as return flow quickly develops atop the decaying post
frontal airmass. Placement and coverage of this convection remains
highly uncertain and the favored area should focus north of the
local region late Wednesday into Thursday. Precip chances remain
low during this period given the uncertainties. The flow aloft
becomes southwesterly ahead of the next stronger wave which will
begin to influence the southern Plains by late Thursday.
Convection developing further west could spread into the forecast
area either Thursday night or Friday. Additional showers and
storms appear probable Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the
upper trough axis passes. Increasing instability and shear within
this time frame will increase the potential for severe weather.
The pattern remains active into next weekend as the next strong
wave over the southern CONUS may already be in place by that time.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For terminals near and north of I-40, aviation weather concerns
should be mostly minimal. For these areas scattered mid to high
level clouds will continue at times but should remain VFR. A
scattered shower or two could develop late this evening or
overnight but confidence is low (10-15% chance). Breezy northeast
winds will subside by late afternoon, with gusts dropping from
15-25 kts down to 10-15 kts.

For areas to the south such as KMLC, periodic rain showers may
occur throughout the forecast period. The most likely chance of
showers will be late this afternoon into the early overnight
hours. CIGS may come down briefly during any showers, but should
remain near or above 3 kft. An isolated thunderstorm could occur
(10% chance) but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  65  39  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   46  66  39  72 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   44  65  39  71 /  50   0   0   0
BVO   38  65  35  73 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   39  64  34  70 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   40  62  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   43  64  38  69 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   38  63  36  68 /  10   0   0   0
F10   43  64  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   46  63  39  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06