454
FXUS63 KUNR 111108
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
508 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warmer and continued dry today.

-Becoming unsettled next week with periodic chances for showers
 and thunderstorms, best chances Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 149 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Mean NW flow can be expected through next week, supporting
occasional weak PAC impulses. Each of these impulses will have the
ability to support isold-sct shra/ts. Moisture will be limited
with most of the impulses as the GOMEX remains closed to the
region and the main moisture source will be leftover PAC
moisture. Convection chances will return Sunday and persist
through next week with the best chances for precip in the region
Mon-Wed when the best PW`s reside over the region per a better
pocket of PAC moisture, and esp over the Black Hills per
convective enhancement from terrain. Temps will be warmest the
next coupe days with a bit of a cool down mid next week, but still
seasonal. Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs in the 70s
most places with 80s toward central SD. Weak impulse will cross
the region Sunday, supporting isold shra/ts, with the best chances
over the southern BH where eddy convergence will be in place. A
little stronger impulse will cross the region Monday-Tues,
supporting better chances for sct convection, esp given better
moisture profiles. After Wed, things dry out, with continued weak
impulses offering more isolated convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 508 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE