Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 171018
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
618 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region this morning,
followed by a cold front this afternoon. The coldest air of the
season arrives Wednesday night and Thursday with another round
of strong winds and possible snow showers across the north.
Clearing skies Thursday evening will give way to some cloudiness
on Friday with somewhat moderating temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM Update...
Cloud continues to overspread the region early this morning.
Some light returns even showing up on radar at this hour, thus
couldn`t rule out a few sprinkles or a flurry. The more
concentrated showers associated with the cold front were still
off to our west and will move in a little later this morning.
Only minor tweaks to hourly temps/dew points at this time.

previous discussion
Clouds will increase early today in advance of an approaching
cold front from the west. A band of showers is expected to
precede and accompany the front this afternoon. The forecast
model soundings do show increasing instability and some CAPE
which will lead to the potential for some gutsy winds with any
of the showers. The highs today will range from the mid to upper
40s north and low to mid 50s downeast. It will turn blustery
and colder tonight in the wake of the cold front. The colder air
and an upper trof moving across the region will result in
mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers across northern
areas tonight, mainly from the Katahdin region north. There
could even be some slight localized accumulation across the St.
John Valley by morning. Elsewhere, across central and downeast
areas, expect partly cloudy skies. Lows by morning will range
from the upper 20s north and lower 30s central and downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quite windy and cold conditions can be xpctd, with ongoing sct
sn shwrs across Nrn ptns of the FA Thu morn as an upper trof
exits the Rgn to our E and strong sfc hi pres from the W build
toward the area. Steep sfc-500m lapse rates will allow 925-850mb
winds of 40 to 45 kt to mix to the sfc at times, resulting in
the issuance of another wind adv for all of the Rgn til 6 PM,
when both the sfc pres grad and winds alf diminish. Sn shwrs
should msly exit the FA into NB prov by aftn, with lclzd accums
of an inch or less is possible ovr the NW and St John vly areas.

Otherwise, skies will partially clr up N Thu eve and become
msly clr ovr Cntrl/Downeast areas as winds slowly diminish.
A band of hi/mid cldnss de-marking a warm front will cross the
Rgn from QB prov by wed morn with very little of any precip with
somewhat moderating hi temps by Fri aftn. Rn shwrs well ahead of
a cold front will then move into the area from QB Fri ngt with
lgt to very lgt rnfl amts, contg thru Sat, when a cold front
crosses the region durg the eve hrs. Temps Fri ngt and Sat will
be milder under contd SW flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Colder conditions will follow the cold front late Sat ngt into
Sun morn with sct rn shwrs chgng to sn shwrs by daybreak Sun
msly across N and Cntrl areas, then ending by Sun aftn with prtl
clrg skies Sun ngt. Another weak s/wv crossing the Rgn Mon from
the W could bring some clds and possible flurries and sprinkles
to the area, otherwise the next chc of rn and sn shwrs looks to
be Tue aftn and eve with the apch of an upper trof. Long range
models seem to agree that no system attm looks to be bringing
any sig precip to the Rgn durg the long range. Temps, spcly
dytm temps look to be below avg thru this pd.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this morning. Expect numerous showers
to develop across the north this afternoon and scattered showers
downeast, with localized MVFR in any showers. Expect generally
MVFR ceilings and scattered snow showers north tonight, with VFR
at the downeast terminals. Gusty northwest winds will develop at
all terminals by daybreak Thursday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly MVFR clgs, and briefly vsby attms for
Nrn TAF sites while Downeast sites msly remain low VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will issue a Gale Warning beginning at 6 PM this and
continuing into Thursday. Winds/seas will continue to increase
this afternoon, with frequent gusts to 35kt expected tonight in
the wake of the departing cold front.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Outside of contg gale conditions with NW
wind gusts for all of our waters from Thu morn thru Thu eve in
strong llvl cold advcn, the avg conditions thru the remainder of
the fcst will be marginal SCA conditions or less. Kept close to
a WW3/NWPS blend for fcst wv hts with primary wv pds msly in
the shorter fetch 5 to 8 sec range.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Thursday
     night for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/VJN
Marine...Duda/VJN



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