Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 180121
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
921 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue southeast of the area tonight as high
pressure builds in from the west. This high will settle over the
Ohio Valley on Thursday before shifting to the East Coast for
Friday. A cold front will then approach the area on Saturday
morning, bringing some wet weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds have eroded over the western half of the forecast area,
however think the lake effect clouds in the east will be much
slower to erode. That said will keep the freeze warning going
in the west, but leave the eastern counties out.

Original discussion... A cold front moving through the area
has allowed for some lake- enhanced showers and some mixed
precipitation to persist throughout the day. As the winds have
shifted from the west to the northwest with the front,
precipitation has diminished a bit this afternoon. Given the
cold airmass over Lake Erie with the front, still expect lake-
effect precipitation to continue over the snow belt this evening
and tonight and could see a snowflake or two in the highest
hills of NW PA but given the warm surface temperatures, not
expecting too much in the way of accumulation. Away from the
snow belt, skies will clear and temperatures should drop to near
the dew points in the lower 30s. The freeze warning will
continue for tomorrow morning as temperatures will likely end
the growing season. High pressure will build in from the west
tomorrow and the area will dry out with only some residual lake
clouds of note. Thursday`s high temperatures will be similar to
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will begin to shift east Friday with
mainly zonal flow across the area. An upper level shortwave will
pass from west to east across the region with an associated
cold front. Precipitation will impact the western portion of the
region as early as Friday late afternoon and move east into
Saturday morning. Lingering showers will impact mainly along and
near the lake shore and across northeastern Ohio and northwest
PA Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to plummet Saturday into Sunday behind the
cold front with overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night into Sunday morning and in the low to mid 40s for
highs on Sunday. There is the possibility of a rain/snow mix if not
just full blown snow Saturday night into Sunday morning across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the extended
with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region and New
England. Sunday night will be chilly again as high pressure over the
Ohio Valley continues to build eastward. Many inland sites will see
temperatures reach the lower 30s for another night. Southwest flow
will develop on the back side of the surface high with warm
advection pushing highs in Ohio back into the 50s again on Monday.
Model spread increases beyond that time with respect to when the
next trough will move through the northern stream, pushing another
cold front south across the area. The GFS and Canadian bring the
front through on Tuesday while the ECMWF is more like early
Wednesday. The airmass will generally be dry with just low chances
of lake effect showers at times through the first half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Cold front is not into Central Ohio. Gusty NW winds will
diminish after sunset. Clouds will slowly erode from the west as
high pressure builds in. Lake effect clouds east of CLE wont
totally erode until tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR probable Friday night into Saturday entire
area in -shra. Showers possible in the northeast Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds between 20 and 30 knots will continue through this
evening. Those speeds slowly come down through the course of the
night as high pressure nudges closer to the Ohio Valley and lower
Great Lakes for Thursday. By late Thursday afternoon southwest flow
will begin to increase and 15 to 25 knots will be common to end the
week. A cold front Saturday will bring the winds around to the west-
northwest and speeds will slowly back down Sunday with high
pressure. So will leave the small craft advisory as is and note that
it will be needed again by Thursday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-006-
     008-017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...DJB/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Riley


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