Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181926
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Western Great Lakes will
drift east and move off the East Coast Friday. This will allow
a slow moving low pressure system to drift across the forecast
area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through the near
term.   Cu field over the forecast area will clear after sunset
tonight with lows dipping into the 50s overnight.  The large area of
high pressure now centered over Lake Michigan, will drift east into
upsate Now York tomorrow.   This will set up a southerly flow and a
gradual warm up.   Highs tomorrow should peak in the lower to mid
80s on thursday.  The high will slide off the East coast Friday
setting up a change in the weather pattern for this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly slow wet pattern setting up for the weekend as an upper level
low pressure system settles into the Great Lakes region.  The upper
level low pressure system is expected to deepen as it moves slowly
southeast through the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley region by
Sunday.  The storm system will tap into the Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico moisture sources and bring a threat for showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday.  As the upper level low
pressure and related surface low retrograde southwest, some slightly
warmer air will try to rotate into the system at the surface by
Sunday. However, with threat for showers and thunderstorms and
clouds present through the period, temperatures will be held back a
tad.  Shooting for near normal highs and lows through this 3 day
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues into the first half of next week, but to
what degree and the details are yet to be determined. Upper low from
the weekend will be dissolving and have precip chances diminishing
from Sunday night into Monday. Precip chances have to continue into
Tuesday and probably Wednesday as we then have a front attempting to
approach from the northwest. But confidence is low as this will be a
slowly evolving pattern with a strong Atlantic ridge and a strong
west coast ridge. Temperatures though will be seasonable through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Cu field will dissipate
after sunset giving clear skies tonight.  Northeast flow will
diminish and turn to the south overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Friday night into Sunday with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish this evening on the lake and be
light and variable tomorrow.  A slight increase in the winds will
take place Thursday night out of the southeast and then shift to a
southerly direction behind the high pressure and ahead of the
surface low pressure system.  Winds will remain up at around 15
knots through Friday night and then diminish Saturday to 10 to 15
knots. Further diminishing will take place by Sunday as surface low
pressure system settles into the region.  Gradient begins to
slacken by Monday and light and variable winds expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Lombardy


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