Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 142143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
343 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter is on the way as we transition from a mild sunny day today
to cloudy and chilly tomorrow. A cold front will move in
overnight, bringing gusty winds, chilly temperatures and isolated
showers to the Borderland Monday. Highs will be about 20 to 25
degrees colder than today. The cool weather will continue through
mid week along with some showers. By Thursday and Friday, stronger
southwest flow will help temperatures warm some.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winter on the way, compliments of Canadian air moving in with a
back door cold front. In the large picture, eastern Pacific
blocking ridge will continue in a more or less morphing Omega
ridge. Eastern upper low of Omega still forming as Canadian
trough drops down over the western U.S. The low eventually takes
up residence over Arizona for most of the week. At the surface,
the cold front extends from near Albuquerque to just through
Ruidoso and Artesia. Front will momentarily hang up late afternoon
on the Sacramento Mountains before sweeping westward overnight.
Expect the front to reach the Rio Grande Valley around midnight
and then out to the Arizona border later Monday morning. Gusty
winds will accompany the front, with gusts to 45 mph along west
slopes of mountains. Over the Sac Mtns expect some low clouds and
freezing fog to develop Monday morning. Some flurries are also
possible and prog soundings show even some light freezing drizzle
possible, so included all of these in the forecast. Expect much of
the rest of the CWA to cloud over as lower clouds form in place
with the cold advection. Temperatures will run about 20-25 degrees
colder than today. Snow levels will fall to below 7000 ft across
the Sacs, so 1-2 inches of snow possible through Tuesday night.

Southwest flow aloft will continue the weak overunning of the cool
air at the surface, so kept broadbrushed low POPs in for much of
next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS show tropical moisture plume
entraining up over the eastern CWA Wednesday night and Thursday,
so increased POPs in the east. This moisture advection should also
raise snow levels and end the chance of snow over the Sacs
Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Increased southwest flow aloft will help modify temperatures
Thursday and Friday, though temps still at least 10 degrees below
normal. Both GFS/ECMWF show some potential for tropical impact
after day 10 as next tropical feature (Tara) moves up towards the
southern Baja.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/00Z-16/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT050-070 for most locations through about 12Z-15Z but
areas of 1-3SM BR BLO BKN010 and possibly FZDZ or -SHSN in the
Sacramento Mountains after 06Z and through remainder of period.
After 12Z over the lowlands, expect increasing SCT-BKN015-025 BKN040-
050 with isolated -SHRA behind a strong cold front moving through
overnight. Winds will start out W to SW at 5-15KTS but cold front
will reach KELP by 06Z, DMN by 10Z and AZ border region by 12Z.
East to northeast winds behind front will increase to 10-20G30KTS
with stronger winds on western mountain slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler weather as advertised will be moving into the region
overnight behind a strong cold front.  Temperatures over the next
couple of days will be dropping 20 to 30 degrees below highs
experienced this weekend. Some light lowland rain showers are
possible next couple days with some rain/snow or possibly freezing
precipitation possible in the Sacramento Mountains, especially the
eastern slopes.  Breezy to windy east to northeast winds will also
accompany this colder air. Relative humidities will remain well
above 40 percent through at least Thursday before a brief warmup is
expected for Friday and possibly Saturday ahead of the next front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 47  52  38  48 /  10  10  30  30
Sierra Blanca           41  47  34  42 /  20  10  30  30
Las Cruces              47  53  36  48 /  10  10  30  30
Alamogordo              47  54  36  50 /  20  20  30  30
Cloudcroft              30  35  27  36 /  20  30  30  40
Truth or Consequences   43  48  35  49 /  20  20  30  30
Silver City             44  48  37  42 /   0  30  30  30
Deming                  48  54  38  48 /   0  10  30  30
Lordsburg               49  57  39  49 /   0  20  30  30
West El Paso Metro      48  51  37  46 /  10  10  30  30
Dell City               39  48  33  46 /  20  20  30  30
Fort Hancock            46  51  35  47 /  10  10  30  30
Loma Linda              38  45  36  41 /  20  10  30  30
Fabens                  46  51  38  48 /  10  10  30  30
Santa Teresa            48  53  37  48 /  10  10  30  30
White Sands HQ          47  53  37  48 /  10  20  30  30
Jornada Range           48  53  37  48 /  10  10  30  30
Hatch                   48  55  36  49 /  10  20  30  30
Columbus                50  55  38  48 /   0  10  30  30
Orogrande               46  52  36  48 /  20  10  30  30
Mayhill                 29  34  27  36 /  20  30  30  40
Mescalero               30  39  28  38 /  20  30  30  30
Timberon                31  37  28  36 /  20  30  30  40
Winston                 36  44  31  41 /  20  30  30  40
Hillsboro               41  51  32  45 /  10  20  30  40
Spaceport               45  54  35  49 /  10  10  30  30
Lake Roberts            39  49  31  43 /  10  30  30  30
Hurley                  43  51  38  43 /   0  20  30  30
Cliff                   45  61  37  53 /   0  30  30  40
Mule Creek              46  57  39  50 /   0  40  30  40
Faywood                 43  51  36  43 /   0  20  30  30
Animas                  51  58  39  48 /   0  20  30  20
Hachita                 47  55  37  46 /   0  10  30  30
Antelope Wells          49  57  38  47 /   0  20  30  20
Cloverdale              48  56  36  44 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for
     NMZ414>416.

TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday for
     TXZ418-420.

&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz


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