Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 181908
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Afternoon Update...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Models in pretty good agreement with the short term. High pressure
centered over the northern GOM will hold through Friday and then
break down as the midwest trough digs and moves eastward Friday
night. Low level flow late tonight and Friday will bring in Atlantic
moisture in the form of low clouds but should not bring in any
precipitation. As the upper trough moves into the eastern U.S. the
associated cold front will move the Tennessee valley Friday night
and into north Georgia toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered showers
will spread into extreme north Georgia Friday evening, and across
much of north Georgia after midnight Friday night. Instability will
be very low so am not expected thunder Friday night.

17


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Beginning Saturday, a surface frontal system will push into
Northern Georgia. Ahead of the front, mid-level lift from
positive vorticity advection (PVA) associated with a broad
longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS will make its way over
Georgia with just enough subtropical moisture ahead of it to
produce some rain showers across the area. Recent trends, have
been showing weaker areas of PVA moving into the region than
previously, and thus producing lower POPs and rainfall totals. As
it stands, we are expecting no more than a quarter of an inch of
rain on average with the highest rainfall totals expected further
north. As the cold front sweeps through on Saturday, a cooler,
dryer air mass will follow dropping PWAT values to a quarter inch
and high temperatures on Sunday expected to be in the 60s, a
shocking 10 degree below normal, if only for a day.

The area will remain mostly sunny and dry until moisture begins to
make a comeback to the area in the middle of next week. The next
wave of precip is expected to come through as early as next
Thursday, but as of this morning, that`s all the models agreed
upon with major discrepancies between the GFS and the Euro.
Since, both models have begun to come together in regards to the
overall pattern, but timing and maturity of a potential low
pressure system, as well as a possible wedge front pushing into
Georgia from the Northeast, are all in question. What we`re
confident in at this point is that we`ll have rain across the
area around this time, but exactly when, where, how much and by
what means are yet to be determined.

Thiem

&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions through much of tonight. Atlantic moisture will
return late tonight bringing 2500-3000 ft cigs across the forecast
area from the southeast late tonight and early Friday morning.
Cigs will be VFR all areas by noon Friday. Winds will remain east
to southeast through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on cig heights late tonight and early Friday.
Medium on timing of 2500-3000 ft cigs late tonight/early Friday.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          48  71  58  73 /   0   5  20  60
Atlanta         51  71  60  69 /   0   5  30  60
Blairsville     43  67  55  64 /   0   5  60  70
Cartersville    49  70  58  67 /   0   5  50  70
Columbus        58  73  63  78 /   5   5  10  60
Gainesville     47  69  57  68 /   0   5  40  70
Macon           55  72  60  79 /   5  10  10  60
Rome            46  71  58  68 /   0   5  50  70
Peachtree City  51  71  59  72 /   5   5  20  60
Vidalia         58  76  64  82 /   5   5   5  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...17


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