Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days...
1) Storm chances this evening/tonight and again Sunday
evening/night (possibly higher-end severe threat Sunday).
2) Return to above normal temperatures late weekend through next
week.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms associated with mid-
level isentropic ascent should remain west of the forecast area
this morning.

Shortwave energy currently crossing the Great Basin along with a
destabilizing airmass will be the primary focus for thunderstorm
development across the High Plains this afternoon. Given the
strong forcing, orientation of moisture/instability axis and
direction of mid/upper flow, there is high probability this
activity will dive east/southeast across southwest KS into
northwest/western OK during the late afternoon and evening, where
the severe weather threat is greatest. Further north across
Wichita`s forecast area, even though instability is less, degree
of upper forcing and deep layer shear should be enough for a
primarily sub-severe thunderstorm complex to roll east/southeast
across the area, mainly south/southwest of I-70.

Attention then turns to storm chances Sunday afternoon and
evening, as another strong shortwave approaches from the
northwest. Primary focus for widespread storm initiation will
likely be over the western half of KS, although an additional
(more subtle) storm initiation zone could be across eastern KS in
vicinity of a warm front oozing north. Forecast instability/shear
combination along with degree of forcing is rather impressive,
supporting likely severe storms with all severe hazards possible.
Latest guidance consensus suggests the highest potential will be
generally northwest of the KS Turnpike. Stay tuned, as strong
instability/shear/forcing combo supports the potential for a
"higher-end" severe event.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Depending on what happens with the outflow boundary Sunday night,
trailing upper energy could support additional isolated to widely
scattered storm development Monday afternoon- evening across
mainly east/southeast KS. But again, location of storms will
depend on where Sunday night`s outflow boundary and associated
effective frontal boundary end up. Nevertheless, instability/shear
combination would support at least an isolated severe storm
threat.

GFS and ECMWF ensembles support a return to hot, mostly dry and
breezy weather next week, as upper ridging builds across Mid-
America. Forecast high temperatures are well into the 90s to near
100 degrees, with overnight lows well into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Main concern will be low clouds this morning and storms tonight.

Upper low is now situated over the Ohio Valley with northerly
surface flow over most of the forecast area. This has resulted in
low clouds working in from northeast KS. They are mostly at MVFR
levels with some pockets of IFR for areas west of I-135. Current
thinking is that these clouds will stick around for most of the
morning, and will quickly dissipate as the early afternoon hours
approach. Storms are expected to develop out in western KS this
afternoon with this activity tracking southeast overnight. Will go
with the thinking that southern portions of the forecast area will
have the best chance at some storms. So will run with VCTS at both
KICT and KHUT and leave out at the other sites at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Longer range GFS ensembles along with outlooks issued by the
Climate Prediction Center support continued above normal
temperatures through at least the first week of July. Many areas
are experiencing one of their warmest June`s on record, and with
the expected hot weather through at least month`s end, monthly
June temperature records may be in jeopardy.&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  66  88  69 /  10  80  20  10
Hutchinson      88  64  88  67 /  10  70  10  10
Newton          87  64  87  67 /  10  70  20  10
ElDorado        86  64  86  67 /   0  70  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   89  66  87  68 /   0  80  30  10
Russell         85  61  89  66 /  10  60  10  10
Great Bend      87  62  88  66 /  10  70  10  10
Salina          83  64  89  67 /  10  50  10  10
McPherson       86  63  88  66 /  10  60  10  10
Coffeyville     86  66  86  69 /   0  70  40  20
Chanute         83  65  85  68 /   0  60  30  10
Iola            82  64  85  67 /   0  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    85  65  86  69 /   0  70  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...ADK



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