Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
159 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Progressive clearing is expected this evening from central into
eastern Kansas in the subsidence region behind the departing upper
trof. Another upper trof diving southeast from the Pacific
Northwest will move across the Rockies tonight and turn eastward
over the Plains during Sunday. Expect to see an increase in
mid/high clouds with this feature, though drier low levels are
expected to mitigate any measurable precip chances. Despite a mix
of clouds and sun, expect temperatures to rebound to near seasonal
levels. Monday is still looking even milder with increasing south
winds by the afternoon. A more significant upper trof is expected
to dive south along the West Coast during Monday with a closed
low evolving over SoCal on Tuesday. Tropospheric moisture will
increase downstream in the mean southwest flow aloft across the
southern Plains with better low level moisture flux on the
southerly flow into eastern Kansas by Tuesday afternoon. This
should result in at least modest chances for showers/isolated
thunder, mainly along/southeast of the Kansas turnpike.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The aforementioned upper low/trof is expected to move east-northeast
across the central/southern Plains during the mid-week periods with
highest precip/convective chances again along/east of the Kansas
turnpike. Dry and seasonably mild air is expected in the wake of
this system Thursday and Friday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

LIFR ceilings are present at all sites at the beginning of the 18Z
TAF period as lingering low level clouds, drizzle, and rain, and fog
continue to affect area airports. Rain has moved into southeast
Kansas from Oklahoma, and is affecting CNU. This is likely to
continue over the next few hours or so before moving out of the
area. Throughout the next few hours, expect cigs to gradually move
into the IFR and MVFR categories, before clearing and returning
to VFR around or shortly after 0Z. Expect clear skies overnight
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Drier and milder air and stronger south winds on Monday will
elevate the grassland fire danger across the area. The greatest
concern is west of I-135 in central Kansas. If winds are a bit
higher than forecast and relative humidity values a bit lower,
then portions of central Kansas could flirt with extreme fire
danger on Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed
if confidence increases on the stronger winds and drier air.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    22  55  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      20  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          22  53  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        24  53  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   24  56  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         19  52  22  61 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      19  52  22  62 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          21  53  23  61 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       21  53  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     27  56  28  62 /  10   0  10   0
Chanute         25  54  27  60 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            25  53  28  60 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    26  55  28  61 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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