Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds from hurricane Willa in the eastern Pacific are already
beginning to stream into southwest Texas this afternoon and
moisture will continue to increase over the next 36-48 hours as
the system moves north into Mexico. Willa will track farther
southeast than Sergio did a couple of weeks ago and so we aren`t
expecting quite as much rain, though amounts of 1/2-1 inch should
be common adding to the abundant soil moisture already in place.
The highest rainfall totals will be in the Big Bend and lower
Trans Pecos which could see amounts in excess of an inch. We had
some flooding problems with the rain associated with Sergio and
while the ground is still wet from those rains, do not believe
that we will see the same flood threat due to the lower amounts
and so have not issued a Flash Flood Watch at this time. There
will be an isolated, mainly urban flash flood threat but will let
the later shifts take another look. Showers will start Tuesday,
peaking Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before moving east
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Willa combined with an upper
trough approaching from the west, will create a surface low in the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, generating a northerly flow over
West Texas/eastern New Mexico that will bring in cooler air on
Wednesday.

A return southerly flow develops Thursday with warmer temperatures
advecting in through the weekend. Have tempered the warm up late
this week for two reasons: 1. residual ground moisture and 2. a
weak cold front on Sunday. Both the MEX and European guidance show
us getting close to 80 by the weekend, but this may be difficult
given our recent rainfall so have undercut guidance by a few
degrees.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  65  49  51 /  10  40  70  90
Carlsbad                       52  59  51  55 /  10  70  90  60
Dryden                         53  61  54  58 /  20  60  80  70
Fort Stockton                  52  61  48  55 /  10  50  80  70
Guadalupe Pass                 51  58  45  53 /  10  70  90  40
Hobbs                          49  61  46  51 /  10  60  90  70
Marfa                          49  59  49  59 /  10  60  90  50
Midland Intl Airport           50  63  48  52 /  10  50  80  80
Odessa                         51  62  48  52 /  10  50  80  80
Wink                           52  63  51  55 /   0  50  90  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10


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