Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190250
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1050 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues through Thursday. Low pressure stalls in
Ohio Valley Friday through Sunday. Unsettled weather remains
through the middle of next week as upper trough moves in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM Wednesday...

Forecast on track.

As of 750 PM Wednesday...

Lowered overnight lows in the valleys a bit in favor of the
MET. Otherwise, the forecast is on track this cool, comfortable
mid summer night.

As of 135 PM Wednesday...

Sig wx nil in the near term. Very quiet as we enter a brief
period of ridging aloft before a wholesale pattern change
arising beyond Thursday. Surface high pressure dominating the
near term drifts east towards the east coast, and will
eventually relinquish control of the dry weather in place. Low
dewpoint air will see values increase towards the end of the day
Thursday, but until then, this will result in another
comfortable night with lowland temperatures able to fall a bit.
Expect an upward push in the temperatures Thursday as 850mb
temperatures climb, but overall, a pretty benign forecast in
place. No POPs through the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Moisture will be on the increase Thursday night as a nearly
stacked upper/surface low moves through the northern
Mississippi River Valley. Have some low end POPs making it into
the west during the pre-dawn but in general expect activity to
hold off until Friday as a gradually occluding warm front moves
in. 12Z GFS and NAM runs in decent agreement with this system
stalling out along the Ohio/Indiana border beyond the end of the
short term period. The 12Z ECMWF is a bit farther north with
the stalled system, as it transfers more energy into a
developing low just off the east coast. Either scenario should
keep forecast area in unsettled pattern with high chance to
likely POPs Friday night through Saturday night. With lots of
clouds around, temperatures on Saturday should be noticeably
cooler than Friday, especially across the lowlands. Overnight
lows should be running just above normal thanks to the fairly
widespread blanket of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

The stalled low from the short term period should be filling and
drifting south Sunday into Monday. Have POPs gradually tapering
off Sunday night into Monday. Monday night should be fairly dry
across the west, with some lingering showers or storms across
the mountains. An upper trough moves into the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Wednesday, with renewed shower and storm chances.
Temperature wise, high should be running below average Sunday
and Monday, and then near average midweek. With an abundance of
moisture and clouds, lows will be near to just above average
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wednesday...

Near term updated MOS guidance continues to show dense fog
forming at the northern 3 TAF sties PKB, EKN and, to a lesser
extent, CKB, overnight, in agreement with the previous
forecast, which also shows brief dense fog late down at CRW.
This is consistent with lighter flow to the north, closer to the
surface high. While surface flow becomes calm or nearly so all
sites, flow aloft will increase to 15 to 20 kts just off the
deck across the south, working against fog there. This is
reflected at BKW with a light southeast puff there toward dawn
Thursday.

Expect VFR conditions Thursday, with a SCT cu field atop a deep
afternoon mixed layer, up around 6 kft. Expect light generally
south to southeast flow surface and aloft Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 07/19/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon
through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/MC
NEAR TERM...26/TRM
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...TRM



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