Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 191357
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
957 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with dry conditions today. Cold front Saturday,
followed by a stronger front Saturday night. High pressure
builds in Sunday through early next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Friday...

Allowed frost advisories and freeze warnings to expire on time.
Otherwise no updates planned.

As of 210 AM Friday...

Overall, clear sky tonight, with river valley fog evident on
satellite. Temperatures have cooled nicely across the area, with
much of the CWA in the lower to mid 30s. Current frost/freeze
headlines look good at this point.

We should see a rather quick jump in temperatures this morning
with ample sunshine and dry atmosphere in place. Clouds will
quickly increase by this afternoon however, out ahead of an
approaching cold front. Expect showers to develop later this
evening and overnight. In addition to showers, will see an
increase in winds from tightening pressure gradient/increasing
llj, and have bumped winds up tonight from previous forecast.
With cloud cover and winds, will have a rather mild night on tap
tonight, compared to past few nights, with most locations only
dipping into the 50s.

Front will be in central Ohio/edging towards the CWA towards the
end of the forecast period. Precipitation will also be tapering
off, possibly to -dz or very light rain with plenty of low cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM Friday...

Areas of light rain/drizzle are expected across primarily WV and
W VA Saturday morning with thick overcast persisting. Another
front is prog to push southeast through the CWA during the
day, which may allow for an increase in light precip chances
again (nearly areawide) during the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Breezy conditions (similar to what we experienced
on Wednesday) are expected during the day Saturday as the
pressure gradient force strengthens.

Colder air arrives Saturday night with the thermal profile
cooling and moisture depth flirting with the snow growth zone
aloft. H85 trough becomes slow to move through the region and
with the parent mid levels trough axis approaching...additional
areas of light precip should continue to develop (especially
during the evening). Drier air then builds into the CWA
overnight, but as llvl NW flow develops across E/SE WV,
the combination of synoptic and orographic lift should assist
in continued shower development across the higher terrain.
Highest elevations should see a transition from rain to snow
overnight Saturday night with a few inches of snow possible.
The lower elevations of E/SE WV should see a mix of rain and
snow with only minor accumulations expected at this time. Drier
conditions should prevail across central areas of WV and points
north and west(including SE OH and E KY).

Surface high pressure then builds into the region Sunday and
Monday resulting in clearing skies and much colder conditions.
Sunday and Sunday night currently look to be the coolest
day/night of the Fall season so far as the high pressure center
moves overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

High pressure shifts east early next work week, followed by
another fast moving cold front pushing through. Moisture
availability will be lacking with next week`s front and thus
little to no precip expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 615 AM Friday...

Mainly VFR conditions with calm surface winds overnight,
however, river valley fog has developed across the area,
creating localized IFR/VLIFR visibilities and ceilings. Any fog
will dissipate between 13-14Z, with a return to VFR conditions.

After 23Z, rain showers will move back into the area, with
widespread MVFR conditions developing after 03Z, and widespread
IFR developing after 06Z, along with gusty southwesterly winds,
with gusts in the teen to lower- mid 20 kt range.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dissipation of fog this morning may vary
from forecast. Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR in stratus and rain possible into Saturday.
IFR possible in rain and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RH/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/SL
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...SL


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