Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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847
FXUS64 KTSA 192320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible at NW AR
sites through about 02z with significant reduction to vis with an
thunderstorms. Period of MVFR ceilings appears likely by Monday
morning across northeast OK and northwest AR, with improvement to
low-end VFR in the afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms will
again be possible mainly over NW AR Monday afternoon, however
coverage will be much more limited and impacts brief and
localized.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Forecast concerns are convective potential and severity mainly
over the next 12 hours. Rain/storm chances toward the middle of
the week are another item of mention.

An anomalously strong upper trough for this time of year is
shifting into the Plains this afternoon. A lead wave is shifting
across OK/KS this afternoon, and its surface reflection is slowly
deepening over south central KS. A cold front is developing to the
southwest of the low across western OK. Ahead of the cold front, a
low level convergent zone or wind shift is supporting a band of
non severe showers and storms in the Tulsa area and points
northeast. A pseudo-warm front was laid out east-west across NW AR
back into NE OK ahead of the low level wind shift. CAM guidance is
aggressive in developing the ongoing band of convection with time
and is now suggesting a quick evolution from cellular convection
to bowing line segments as it approaches or moves into NW AR.
Given favorable shear profiles in the base of the upper trough,
there is potential for supercells with a hail/wind and isolated
tornado threat initially, evolving quickly into a potential qlcs
event with short-lived tornadoes. The band of storms should shift
quickly east of the region by 03Z.

There will be some potential for showers and isolated storms as
the main upper low slides across the Ozarks on Monday. However,
the bulk of the stronger storm activity along a secondary and
stronger cold front during the afternoon is expected to be well to
the east and south of the forecast area.

Models continue to suggest that there will be a window of shower
and storm chances toward midweek in a zone of favorable warm
advection in between the advancing upper ridge and departing upper
trough to our east. Instability will be meager with the good
moisture shunted well to our south and east, so this will
probably not be a big deal.

After being below normal this weekend into much of next week, a
fairly quick warm up and dry out is expected to close out the
week as mid level heights rise over the region. Mid level ridging
is expected to persist thru next weekend and into the following
week, suggesting that more typical summer time weather is not done
yet folks.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  84  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   72  85  68  87 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   71  85  66  86 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   67  83  62  84 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   68  81  63  81 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   68  81  64  82 /  70  30  10  10
MKO   69  84  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   67  81  64  82 /  50  20   0   0
F10   69  85  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   73  89  68  90 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....14



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