Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 210149
DGTGUM
PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-040400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1145 AM CHST THU MAR 21 2019

...DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICRONESIA...

SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF SUPER TYPHOON WUTIP AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
ACROSS THE REGION A FEW WEEKS AGO...THE POST EL NINO-LIKE DRY WEATHER
HAS RETURNED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2019. THE
NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...THE ISLANDS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND OTHER AREAS SUCH AS
WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAVE RECEIVED MUCH LESS
THAN NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTHS.

THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED AND THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKS. SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
PARTICULAR WILL SUFFER FROM VERY DRY WEATHER.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEEPENED FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS
IMPLEMENT STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED PATCHY RAINFALL RECENTLY...BUT DRIER
WEATHER COULD DEVELOP AND PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER
WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL
WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES.

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA
INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND MOST OF YAP
STATE. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU IN WESTERN MICRONESIA IS ALSO PROJECTED TO
BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA
APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME...THEY SHOULD
PLAN FOR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS AND PERHAPS
MONTHS.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS
THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS WORSENED TO EXTREME
DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4) WHILE WOTJE OF THE RMI
AND SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN SEVERE DROUGHT D2-S
(SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...PALAU
AND NOW WOLEAI OF YAP STATE AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE ARE IN MODERATE
DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). MANY OTHER LOCATIONS OF
MICRONESIA REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM DRYNESS DROUGHT LEVEL
0 OF 4). ALL THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN IN THE COMING WEEKS.
THE DRYING PROCESS CAN OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
UTIRIK HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.04 INCH OF RAINFALL THUS FAR IN MARCH.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF AND FAST MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN RMI.
UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N SUCH AS
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND
MEJIT ISLAND MAY RECEIVE BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH INTO APRIL.

OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN
VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS INCLUDE MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP AND
EBON AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING
WEEKS AND WATER RESOURCES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. DUE
TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR
AND MAKE PLANS TO CAREFULLY REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES.

MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS(CNMI)...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAVE RECEIVED ONLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
THUS FAR IN MARCH...AND ROTA ONLY 0.61 INCH. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY
AND BRIEF OVER THE NORTHERN RMI. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY...AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REGION FROM MARCH INTO APRIL. SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
ROTA AND THE FARTHER NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE WORSENING
DROUGHT IMPACTS DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

IN PARTICULAR FOR SAIPAN THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES COULD
BE A PROBLEM IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS TO MONTHS. VEGETATION WILL DRY OUT
AND A SEVERE WILDFIRE SEASON COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEBRIS
FROM TYPHOON YUTU REMAINS.

GUAM...
GUAM HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.46 INCH OF RAINFALL THUS FAR IN MARCH. VERY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKS AND GUAM RAINFALL WILL BE
MONITORED CAREFULLY. THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE ACROSS GUAM.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
WEATHER HAS BECOME VERY DRY OVER PALAU AND YAP STATE. PATCHY SHOWERS
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES...BUT BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP AND PALAU.

THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN
THE COMING WEEKS AND VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ALTHOUGH SUPER TYPHOON WUTIP MOVED OVER THE REGION A FEW WEEKS AGO AND
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA...
DRY WEATHER HAS RECENTLY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MICRONESIA.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED FOR AREAS NORTH OF 8N. THE EL NINO
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT.
DESPITE THE LATENESS OF THE EL NINO ADVISORY...THE WEATHER PATTERNS
OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-
LIKE WEATHER AND IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
MICRONESIA...WHICH IS REFLECTING OF A POST-EL NINO DRY PERIOD.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                      DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR   MAR NORM  MAR (%)
                      1-31   1-31   1-28   1-18  1-18      XX
RMI
UTIRIK                2.83   1.91   0.30   0.04  1.41      03
WOTJE                 6.63   1.93   1.18   0.30  1.18      25
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE       6.58   1.54   4.82   1.19  2.06      58
WSO MAJURO           12.71   7.23   5.09   3.81  4.38      87
MILI                 12.00   8.50   8.79   5.89  4.35     135
AILINGLAPLAP          7.28   3.19  10.30   3.25  3.54      92
JALUIT*               4.21   2.93   7.04   5.18  5.92      88

FSM (EAST TO WEST)
KOSRAE (SAWRS)        7.50  15.58  12.62  14.42  9.16     157
WSO POHNPEI          16.11  16.00   7.57  11.82  8.20     144
FANANU                5.33   8.92   3.08   4.93  3.26     151
LUKUNOR               7.89  12.41   6.33   5.13  6.18      83
WSO CHUUK             8.53  18.49   8.87  10.29  5.12     201
POLOWAT**             3.93   3.64   0.69   2.18  3.33      65
WOLEAI ATOLL          9.02   6.37   2.83   0.98  4.76      21
ULITHI***             7.48  11.13   1.10   1.48  2.17      68
WSO YAP              10.68  15.90   1.57   2.11  3.10      68

ROP
WSO PALAU            11.48   9.79   3.45   5.50  5.05     109

MARIANAS
SAIPAN AP             5.29   1.76   1.54   0.33  1.12      29
TINIAN AP             2.61   2.88   4.02   0.39  1.39      28
ROTA AP               6.41   4.94   2.83   0.61  1.77      34
GUAM AP               7.75   4.24   6.90   0.46  1.61      29

*   JALUIT DEC 2018 RAINFALL UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO INSTRUMENT LOCATION
**  POLOWAT MISSING WUTIP RAINFALL
*** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SUN OVERHEAD
DURING THIS SEASON...AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE IN THE
COMING WEEKS. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF 8 NORTH LATITUDE...FROM ENEWETAK TO
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AND FROM WOTJE AND MALOELAP TO UTIRIK...WILL BE VERY
LOW WITH ONLY BRIEF FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AT BEST. LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND LESS THAN A HALF
INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MAJURO.
RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH AND 3 TO 6
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. WATER SUPPLIES ON THE MORE POPULATED
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED AT TIMES. DESPITE THE OCCURRENCE
OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS...THE ISLANDS
SHOULD BE READY TO PREPARE FOR A POSSIBLE DROUGHT.

WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES...
1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND
CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER
2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY
3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR
COOKING AND WASHING
4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING
5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS
MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE
SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH
WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND
GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS.
DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE BRIEF SHOWERS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE COMING WEEKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AND A HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
AT SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM
COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THIS REGION...VERY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. MUCH OF YAP STATE...PARTS
OF PALAU AND NORTHERN CHUUK STATE WILL BE AFFECTED BY DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

COMPUTER MODELS SHOW ONLY A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH FOR KOROR AND YAP
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A
HALF TO ONE INCH OR MORE DURING THE SECOND WEEK. AT WENO AND FANANU OF
CHUUK STATE...RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. RAINFALL
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR FANANU.

POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE SOUTH
TOWARD THE EQUATOR. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N THE DATE LINE WEST TO 130E.

LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL SHOULD BE MONITORED AND THE REMOTE AND
SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL
BE THURSDAY 4 APRIL 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...
HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5N FROM 150E TO
THE DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI. FOR INFORMATION SEE
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF
HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN
GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED
AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON/BUKUNT

$$


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