Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 160127
DGTGUM
PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-300400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1130 AM CHST THU MAY 16 2019

...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF MICRONESIA...

SYNOPSIS...
THE POST EL NINO-LIKE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MAY OF 2019...BUT WIND FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD START SLOWLY CHANGING AND
THAT WOULD HELP SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN...THE ISLANDS OF GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH
OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND OTHER AREAS SUCH AS YAP STATE AND
PALAU REMAIN MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED BUT SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS. SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND
GUAM HAVE ALL SEEN VERY DRY WEATHER...AND PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE
NEXT WEEK OR TWO COULD PROVIDE SOME NEEDED RAINFALL. GUAM ESPECIALLY
COULD RECEIVE EXTRA SHOWERS FROM ISLAND CONVECTION.

DROUGHT DEEPENED FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS
SHOULD CONTINUE STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. AREAS AROUND MAJURO
AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS RECENTLY. AREAS FROM
ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY BUT PATCHY SHOWERS COULD
START PASSING OVER THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE
RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT DRIER WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE
OF THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE
SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER
CONSERVATION GUIDELINES.

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME
RELIEF AS WIND FLOW PATTERNS CHANGE AND PATCHY SHOWERS DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH...BUT RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL BE A LONG-TERM PROCESS AT BEST.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER
RESOURCES AT THIS TIME...THEY SHOULD PLAN FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. PALAU AND YAP STATE...AND THE MARIANAS AND MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD PLAN ON DRY WEATHER. NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARANGI AND KOSRAE
SHOULD REMAIN WET.

THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE ARE NOW IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4).
SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-S (SHORT-
TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). KWAJALEIN/EBEYE OF THE MARSHALLS AND GUAM
AND ROTA REMAIN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).
YAP AND MAJURO HAVE IMPROVED TO SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2S (SHORT-TERM
DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4) PALAU AND WOLEAI OF YAP STATE AND FANANU OF CHUUK
STATE ARE SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4).
AILINGLAPLAP OF THE RMI AND CHUUK LAGOON ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1S
(SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY
D0-S (SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY).

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
UTIRIK REPORTED ONLY 0.05 AND WOTJE REPORTED 1.60 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
MAY SO FAR. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH RECENTLY ACROSS THE
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF
10N REMAIN VERY DRY. PATCHY SHOWERS COULD START DEVELOPING OVER AREAS
FROM UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...BIKINI...UJAE...RONGELAP...
AILUK...AND MEJIT ISLAND BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES RELATED TO
WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALTHOUGH KWAJALEIN REPORTED NEARLY 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN EARLY MAY.

OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN
VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS INCLUDE MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP...
MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
IN THE COMING WEEKS AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
THESE AREAS. DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. MAJURO HAD ONLY
3.34 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN APRIL.

IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES HAVE CAUSED SOME FIRES
ON MAJURO. THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE RECENTLY AND IS HIGHLY
VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER. GRASSLAND FIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OF THE DRY
ISLETS...AND THEY CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY WITH BRISK TRADE WINDS.

MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW SO FAR IN MAY AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY
AND BRIEF. RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE
JANUARY AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MAY. FIRE DANGER IS EXTREME IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.
FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES COULD BE A PROBLEM
IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

GUAM...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW SO FAR IN MAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
RECENTLY BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MAY. THE
FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM.

IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
THERE WERE AREAS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN EARLY MAY BUT DRY WEATHER
HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE AND PALAU.

SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE
COMING WEEKS SINCE VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND
CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES. ULITHI AND FAIS ARE VERY DRY...BUT
REPORTS FROM AN EDUCATOR ON WOLEAI ATOLL HAS COMMUNICATED WITH OTHER
YAP STATE ATOLLS AND INDICATES THAT "CATCHMENTS ARE FULL!" ON ALL
ATOLLS FROM WOLEAI TO SATAWAL AND FROM EAURIPIK TO FARAULEP.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THERE HAVE BEEN TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION IN THE PAST WEEKS
AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED HELPFUL RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF
MICRONESIA BUT DROUGHT REMAINS EXTREME AND SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATENESS OF THE EL
NINO ADVISORY...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA...WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF A POST-EL NINO DRY PERIOD.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                   DEC-MAR DEC-MAR DEC-MAR  APR    MAY   MAY      MAY
                            NORM    (%)           1-13  1-13 NORM (%)
RMI
UTIRIK               5.12   8.65    59     0.08   0.05  1.82       3
WOTJE               10.04  10.71    94     0.40   1.60  2.06      78
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE     14.16  19.00    75     1.13   5.93  2.77     214
WSO MAJURO          31.16  35.01    89     3.34  11.73  4.13     284
MILI                45.21  36.36   124     2.93   8.20  4.16     197
AILINGLAPLAP        27.67  26.60   104     0.72   2.58  4.52      57
JALUIT*             22.91  36.53    63     6.84   4.28  4.55      94

FSM (EAST TO WEST)
KOSRAE (SAWRS)      54.42  66.37    82    23.96  18.17  7.75     234
WSO POHNPEI         58.59  53.27   110    11.41  3.15   7.70      41
LUKUNOR             35.43  40.88    87    14.30  1.27   5.36      24
WSO CHUUK           50.45  37.23   136     6.00  0.74   4.92      15
POLOWAT**           11.80  25.36    47     4.74  0.40   4.26       9
WOLEAI ATOLL        24.29  31.35    77     3.95  2.27   4.57      50
ULITHI***           19.71  22.14    89     2.03  2.37   2.50      95
WSO YAP             33.03  27.91   118     2.90  3.39   3.56      95

REPUBLIC OF PALAU
WSO PALAU           30.96  42.63    73     6.89  3.26   5.93      55

MARIANAS
SAIPAN AP            9.12  12.30    74     0.93  0.57   1.16      49
TINIAN AP           10.49  14.05    75     1.78  0.22   1.41      16
ROTA AP             16.17  19.04    85     1.41  0.34   1.68      20
GUAM AP             19.70  18.24   108     1.15  0.09   1.80       5

*   JALUIT DEC 2018 RAINFALL UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO INSTRUMENT LOCATION
**  POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP
*** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SUN OVERHEAD DURING THIS
SEASON...AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS
WATER RESOURCES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE...BUT AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ONLY A
QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS
FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK...AND 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER MAJURO AND
THE SOUTHERN RMI. RAINFALL MAY STILL BE VARIABLE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO SHOULD RECEIVE HELPFUL SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE WATER
SUPPLIES ON MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STRESSED. PEOPLE ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES...
1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND
CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER
2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY
3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR
COOKING AND WASHING
4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING
5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS
MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE
SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH
WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND
GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS.
DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
DROUGHT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA BUT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF 1 OR 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT WEEK WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THE ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH COULD ALSO START
RECEIVING NEEDED SHOWERS.

SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
WILL CONTINUE.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
WEATHER HAS DRIED OUT AGAIN OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE
AND PALAU. PALAU AND YAP RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS IN EARLY MAY BUT ARE
CURRENTLY IN A DRY FLOW. CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES HAVE ALL
RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA IN THE NEXT WEEK...WITH 1 INCH OR POSSIBLY
2 INCHES AT BEST FOR PALAU AND YAP STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

AT WENO AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE...THE RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. RAINFALL WILL BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE FOR FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS AND NAMONUITO ATOLL.

POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
NEAR KOSRAE AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER
MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD TO 130E.

LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND
THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 30 MAY 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...
HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF 10N FROM 130E
EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THE AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI. FOR
INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF
HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN
GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED
AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/BUKUNT

$$



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