289
AXNT20 KNHC 051609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N15W.
The ITCZ extends eastward from 06N15W to 02N48W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N
and west of 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas
dominate most of the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in
portions of southern Mexico is reducing visibility and creating
hazy conditions across parts of the southwest and west-central
Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the
southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE
winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural
fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of
the Lesser Antilles, combined with abundant tropical moisture, is
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms across the north-
central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually
weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric
conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week.
Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to
Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more
information.

Moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas are
observed in the eastern and central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the
SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly
in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface
trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has
finally lift NE and out of the area, taking showers and
thunderstorms with it.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1017 mb low near 27N58W to
26N70W to 30N75W. No convection is directly associated with this
front. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas are
noted north of the front, while gentle or weaker NE to E winds and
slight seas are found south of the front.

Further east, another modest cold front extends from 31N41W to
22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the
front to 35W, and north of 22N. Ahead of the front to 33W,
moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present. Off the
coast of Morocco, Western Sahara, and in the vicinity of the
Canary and Cabo Verde Islands moderate to fresh NE winds are
occurring. Moderate seas are found in these waters, with the
highest seas found where winds are fresh. Waters south of 19N are
dominated by moderate trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extending from
27N58W to 26N70W to 30N75W will gradually dissipate as it drifts
southward through tonight. High-pressure building north of the
area in the wake of the front will support fresh trade winds south
of 24N through midweek. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with
a gale center well north of the region over the north-central
Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W
Mon night through Tue night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to
fresh SW winds off northeast Florida as the high pressure shifts
southeast ahead of a front moving off the Carolinas.

$$
Nepaul