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000
AXNT20 KNHC 111655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends
from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Strong to
near-gale force SW to W winds, with frequent gusts to gale force,
will continue over the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico
through this evening. Seas are 8-12 ft. The front will exit the
Gulf of Mexico tonight, and conditions will then improve through
the day tomorrow.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S winds began this morning
across waters offshore of northern Florida, ahead of a cold front
and squall line crossing the state. Seas currently 8-10 ft will
build to 8-13 ft as gales persist for the next 24 hours. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 28N west of 80W, and moving
eastward off of Florida. Beginning late on Friday, winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force. Conditions will then
improve this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNINGS.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near 07N12W and
continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03S33W to
00N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 13W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information about the GALE WARNING.

Outside of the GALE WARNING area, fresh to strong NW winds prevail
behind the cold front in the central and western Gulf of Mexico.
Ahead of the front, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong
speeds across the southeast Gulf, Florida Straits, and Yucatan
Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft in waters outside the Gale Warning.

For the forecast, strong winds will continue to prevail on both
sides of the front today, reaching near gale force over the north-
central to northeastern Gulf. The front will move SE of the area
by early Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Smoke from agricultural fires in Honduras has reduced
visibilities to 3 SM across the Gulf of Honduras waters, according
to surface observations in the region. Please exercise caution if
traveling through dense smoke.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting pulsing strong to
near-gale force trades across the central Caribbean, including
within coastal waters of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8-10 ft
from 10N to 17N between 72W and 80W. Elsewhere, trades are mainly
moderate with seas of 4-7 ft. Weak low pressure is centered in
the Gulf of Honduras, and a weak surface trough is draped across
the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off
of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are expected
offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras will prevail today before diminishing. A cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and
weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the WEST ATLANTIC
GALE WARNING.

1028 mb high pressure is centered near 31N62W, with light to
gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center as per the latest
satellite scatterometer data. A weak stationary front extends
from 31N33W to 22N42W to 18N62W. Showers are possible along the
decaying boundary. A band of fresh to locally strong trades is
noted from 17N to 25N between 40W and 70W; as a result of these
elevated winds, seas have built to 8-10 ft within this area. South
of 17N between 45W and 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds are
supporting 8-9 ft seas. Remaining waters are experiencing gentle
moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure SE of Bermuda will
shift eastward enabling a cold front to move into the waters off
Florida tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds offshore of
Florida and N of the Bahamas will increase to strong to near gale-
force today. Gales are expected this afternoon N of 29N and E of
the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the front tonight. The front
will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will
then stall and dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming
weekend.

$$
Mahoney