Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 241138
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Muddy Brook WMA...Northeast Forest and Fire Management, LLC
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
738 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is expected today. Relative humidity will drop to
30-40 percent by 11 AM, and to a minimum of 25 percent between 2
PM and 5 PM.

North winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected today, with a few gusts
to 20 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Dewpoint............40 decreasing to 36 early.
Max apparent temp...73.
Surface winds.......Northwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2200-4100 ft AGL increasing to 5000-6200 ft AGL
                    early.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (30400-65200 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent (63600 knot-ft) early.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................42 increasing to 56 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 67 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 59 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......15 increasing to 25 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   2   2   5   8   10  13  13  1   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  62  64  66  69  71  72  73  73  73
Dewpoint........42  40  38  36  36  36  36  36  36  37
RH..............55  44  38  33  30  28  27  26  26  27
Heat index (F)..58  62  64  66  69  71  72  73  73  73
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.21  21  20  20  20  20  20  17  15  13
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.9   10  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   8
Surface wnd gst.21  21  20  20  20  20  20  17  15  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.1 4.1 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  20  18  16  15  14  14  13
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............42  57  51  60  58  71  68  62  61  56
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100030  47  65  86  87  81  81  73  71  64
Ceiling (kft)...15  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............41 increasing to 44 after midnight.
Max apparent temp...72.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2400-4100 ft AGL decreasing to 200-700 ft AGL
                    until just after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1400-36900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................39 decreasing to 4.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 11.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   3   2   3   1   2   2   2   3   10  17  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............72  69  67  62  59  56  54  53  52  51  50  50
Dewpoint........39  41  43  43  44  45  45  45  45  45  45  45
RH..............30  36  42  50  57  66  71  74  77  80  83  83
Heat index (F)..72  69  67  62  59  56  54  53  52  51  47  47
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   6   7   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  9   7   8   8   9   9   8   8   8   8   8
Surface wnd dir.W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.7   6   5   6   7   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
Surface wnd gst.10  9   7   8   8   9   9   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 2.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Transp wind dir.NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  8   6   6   7   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   5   5   5
ADI.............39  23  3   3   3   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100037  17  4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  15  11

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Dewpoint............49 increasing to 51 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Max apparent temp...82.
Surface winds.......West winds 7 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 7300-7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 24 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1900-22800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (114700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 increasing to 33 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 62 increasing to 93 early
                    decreasing to 79 increasing to 86 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......14 increasing to 20 early, then increasing to
                    25 early decreasing to 20 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........20     12     9      12     20     25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............51     58     69     78     82     83
Dewpoint........47     50     52     52     51     52
RH..............86     75     55     40     34     34
Heat index (F)..51     58     69     78     81     82
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 7   SW 9   W 12   W 14   W 14
20 ft wind gust.8      9      20     24     23     23
Surface wind....SW 7   SW 7   SW 9   W 12   W 14   W 14
Surface wnd gst.8      9      20     24     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    3300   5700   7800   7400
Transport wind..SW 7   W 9    W 18   W 23   W 23   W 24
LVORI...........5      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............5      7      62     75     83     86
Haines index....4      4      5      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10002      4      53     115    155    156
Ceiling (kft)...14     20     20     25     20     20

$$
Forecaster...JWD
Requested by...Joel R. Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810604.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/24/18
.EMAIL alexentrup@ne-ffm.com



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