Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
736 FXUS63 KMKX 100255 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 955 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers remain possible late this evening (25% chance). - Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected (70% chance) Friday evening through Friday night, with a smaller chance (25%) for some isolated redevelopment of showers Saturday afternoon. Strong storms are not expected at this time. - Additional shower/storm chances at times (50% or less) later Sunday into the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1055 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A few lingering showers this afternoon remain across southern Wisconsin late this evening. These showers have been weakening considerably over the last hour or so and that trend will continue. Drier air is advecting into the mid to low levels which will prevent any additional showers from developing leading to dry weather overnight into early Friday morning. Patterson && .SHORT TERM... Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Tonight through Friday night: Radar currently shows stratiform rain over southern areas of the CWA, exiting towards the south. Some widely scattered showery activity is evident to our north and will drift inbound this evening, but is only expected to amount to a 25% precip chance, considering the drier air advecting in at low levels. A brief surface ridge will allow for a window of dry weather late tonight through Friday afternoon, then a shortwave trough with an accompanying surface low (a clipper system) passes Friday evening. delivering another burst of showery weather (70% precip chance). With the trough advecting cold air aloft, mid-level lapse rates may steepen enough for some weak thunderstorms, but no strong to severe storms are expected at this time. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Saturday through Thursday: A weak impulse in the northwest flow may bring an isolated shower or storm to southern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, but otherwise it should be dry much of the day. Partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures are expected. Breezy southwest winds will pull milder conditions into southern Wisconsin ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Temps will rise well into the 70s, with a few spots possibly cracking 80, with plenty of sunshine likely into at least early afternoon. A shortwave will then bring a chance of showers and storms late afternoon and evening. Additional weak shortwaves will bring shower/storm chances to southern Wisconsin at times Tuesday through Thursday, with temperatures within a few degrees of normal each day. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1055 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions have largely returned to southern Wisconsin late this evening. Cloud cover and ceilings will continue to improve as clouds dissipate from north to south. The last of the rain showers are diminishing and moving south out of the state this evening. Dry weather is then expected overnight into early Friday afternoon. Clouds cover returns Friday afternoon ahead of approaching rain showers and a thunderstorms. Ceilings may dip below VFR conditions for short period of time as the rain moves through. Clear skies are expected to return overnight Friday. The light northerly winds tonight will become westerly and increase slightly Friday. A Lake breeze is likely to develop during the afternoon Friday. Due to the breezy westerly winds, the lake breeze will stall out a couple miles inland from the lake. Terminals right along or close to Lake Michigan (ie: MKE or SBM) will likely see the lake breeze while those further inland (ie:UES)should maintain the west winds. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will move eastward this evening and tonight, while high pressure drops southward through Minnesota into Iowa. Breezy northerly winds this afternoon will gradually become lighter this evening into tonight, with the lighter winds hanging on into Friday morning. The Small Craft Advisory continues until 10 pm CDT. Low pressure will then move southeastward across Lake Michigan later Friday into Friday night. Southerly winds will become breezy ahead of the low by Friday afternoon, with breezy northwest winds developing Friday night into Saturday behind the low. Breezy southerly winds are expected once again on Sunday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee