602
FXUS63 KDVN 040724
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
224 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for
  showers and storms through next week.

- The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
  for severe storms on today for portions of the area.

- A potent dynamic system arriving Monday night to Tuesday could
  bring a more significant severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A large MCS is poised to enter western Iowa early this morning,
and is rapidly moving east/northeast. This has been severe in
Nebraska, but will be quickly moving out of the marginally
unstable air and should become predominantly stratiform rain in
the next 4 hours prior to sunrise as it moves through Iowa and
southern Minnesota. For us, skies will become high overcast
before sunrise, and winds will continue to increase from the
south/southeast. Some showers may near our northwest prior to
12Z, but this looks to hold off until then, and move into our
northwestern 1/3 of the CWA before 10 AM. While in a dissipating
stage, some thunder is possible, and will keep it`s mention in
grids.

During the late morning to early afternoon, coverage of rain in
Iowa will wane, allowing some decent heating to occur in the
east 1/2 of the CWA. the NBM supports highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 today along and east of the Mississippi River, with
dew point temperatures rising to the low 60s just ahead of the
front. Modest CAPE of 500 to 1200 is forecast by most CAMs this
afternoon in our east 1/2. The surface cold front should
reinitiate convection near the Mississippi River. NBM pops came
in today ~90% with the fropa, but with about 1/2 of the CAMs
failing to convect today, I`m inclined to limit pops to 80% in
the narrow fropa timing this afternoon. Anyhow, SPC is
maintaining the Marginal Lvl 1 risk for mainly wind and hail.
This is a low risk, but will be highest with the storms that
form along the front this afternoon.

By early evening, storms will have exited the area to the east,
with rapid clearing and a chilly night in the upper 30s to mid
40s in store.

Sunday, with cool air in place, a pleasant spring
day is forecast, with some diurnal cumulus dotting the sky as
well. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A broad, energetic pattern is set to begin spreading WAA rain
and thunder into the area as soon as Monday, with widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected Monday night into Tuesday.

This Monday night into Tuesday period continues to be shown as a
large/synoptic, strongly forced system, and there`s been a
consistent signal for a very strong jet streak within the
Midwest. Those broad scale factors continue to give an
indication that this may be a widespread severe weather
producer, and our CWA may be included in that. We will begin
messaging this chance today in the HWO.

A warm and breezy pattern is in store on the east side of this
broad potent trof next week. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s are
expected through Wednesday. Following that, the upper trof is
set to deepen, and place the warm air well south of the upper
Midwest, resulting a cooler, cloudier forecast in the 60s to
lower 70s to end the week. This could bring additional showers
and possibly thunder to the region as well, given the cold air
aloft and time of year over moist soil. The QPF in this period
should not be overly heavy, given no connection to the Gulf of
Mexico, but spotty rains over 0.50 appear possible in the
frequent shower chances to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A locally quiet and clear night of VFR weather will see an
approaching area of showers and thunderstorms moving east
through western Iowa tonight. These will be in a dissipating
stage as they enter eastern Iowa this morning, which is now
included as a temporary condition at CID and DBQ. Increasing
south winds will bring moisture into the area, but looking
upstream, MVFR cigs are not found outside of rainfall, as
dewpoints remain low until the convergence of the front arrive.
Thus, I`ve cut back on the MVFR cigs through the day, and
focused more on the two periods of rain/thunder potential, one
in the morning west, and the other in the mid to late afternoon
along and east of the Mississippi River. Some of the afternoon
storms could offer a strong wind gust, and brief IFR conditions.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin