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000
FXUS62 KJAX 251825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A weak cold front has stalled across the FL/GA line, increasing
cloud cover for SE GA. Weakening high pressure to the south has
allowed the Gulf coast sea breeze and Atlantic sea breeze to push
inland. These converging boundaries will aid in increasing cloud
cover for NE FL. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
inland with temperatures in the low 80s along the coast. Afternoon
cumulus along the front and sea breeze merger will fade with
mostly clear skies prevailing overnight. Under the mostly clear
skies, low temperatures will trend near normal with upper 50s
inland and low 60s at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A stalled and diffuse boundary near the FL/GA border will begin to
dissipate through Friday as high pressure shifts to the northeast
and wedges across the local area. This will increase the local
gradients and onshore flow through Saturday. Through Saturday,
ridging will aloft will amplify along the eastern US. Subsidence
associated with this feature will keep meaningful rain chances near
nil; however, a weak coastal trough over the local waters may push a
few sprinkles into the immediate coast on Saturday (kept pops silent
<10% at this time). With the moistening onshore flow, skies will
trend partly to mostly cloudy by Saturday, especially near the
coast. Combination of increasing cloud cover and the breezy, 10-15
mph, onshore flow, temps will trend from the mid 80s inland Friday
to the low 80s Saturday while the coastal areas peak in the upper
70s to near 80 each day while overnight temps remain in the mild
low/mid 60s.

The main concern over the weekends will be beach hazards as surf
builds and rip current risk increases (more below in the marine
section).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Ridging progged to initially hold steady through the end of the
weekend and into early next before being flattened by a dampening
upstream shortwave trough Tuesday. That feature will drag a surface
cold front with it but as it weakens the front appears to stall
generally to the northwest, extending the ongoing dry-spell likely
through the latter end of next week when sea breeze showers may
begin to be prevalent... Otherwise temperatures will trend above
normal through next week with temperatures flirting with the 90s
once again as southerly flow develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions continue through the forecast period. Expect cloud
bases to be around 6k ft, primarily focused along the stalled
frontal boundary to the north and the Gulf coast and Atlantic sea
breezes. Surface winds along the Atlantic coast have shifted to
southeasterly and will make its way inland by the early evening
hours with speeds increasing to 10kt around 20Z. Winds will begin
to die down after sunset. Friday, Sea-breeze should pick back up
around 17Z for the coastal TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A weak cold front has stalled across the FL/GA line, increasing
cloud cover for SE GA. Weakening high pressure to the south has
allowed the Atlantic sea breeze to develop near shore this
afternoon and evening. Onshore flow will strengthen Friday and
through the weekend creating cautionary conditions for NE FL near
shore waters over the weekend and possible small craft advisory
conditions offshore as seas build for NE FL Saturday evening and
into early Sunday morning.


Rip Currents: Moderate Rip current risk at all beaches today,
increasing to high risk by Saturday morning and lasting through
the weekend as surf builds around 5 foot and breezy, persistent
onshore winds develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A weak cool front will near the FL/GA border will dissipate through
Friday as strengthening high pressure wedges in from the northeast.
This will lead to increasing easterly surface and transport winds
Friday and into the weekend yielding elevated to high dispersions,
particularly Saturday. Given the onshore flow, afternoon humidity
will gradually trend upward each day. However, winds will be
elevated (10-15 mph) and a bit gusty during the afternoons (15-20
mph) through the weekend as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Moderate flooding along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near
the Three Rivers Estates gauge will continue through the weekend,
with water levels then gradually falling, but remaining in minor
flood for much of next week. Water levels near the gauge at
Hildreth on the lower Santa Fe will also gradually subside late
this weekend, with minor flooding expected to continue through at
least the middle portions of next week. Water levels are gradually
falling along upper portions of the Suwannee River near the gauge
at Suwannee Springs, where minor flooding will likely continue
through Friday morning. Minor flooding will otherwise continue
along most of the lower Suwannee River through the weekend.
Elsewhere, water levels are expected to fall below flood stage
along lower portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at
Atkinson this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  85  63  83 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  63  78  67  78 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  60  82  65  80 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  62  82  67  80 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  59  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  87  63  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$