Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 282002
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday temperatures will be on the warm side but strong
  cooling from the lake is expected due largely to the east to
  southeast winds.

- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with
  a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few
  thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.

- We are watching another system expected for early to the
  middle of next week that may bring rain to most of southern
  Wisconsin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

High pressure over the region will gradually weaken and slide
east tonight while the ridge aloft starts to break down during
the day Friday as the next system begins to push in. During the
day Friday the conditions look dry as the high pressure and UL
ridge stick around just long enough but we will see the upper
level clouds associated with the next system start to roll in
during the day.

In addition, the system pushing in will bring southeast winds
across the area and while that will lead to warm temps towards
the low 50s for much of the CWA the easterly component of the
winds will cause significant temperature differences near the
lake and just inland due to the cooler lake temps.

By Friday evening we will finally start to see the forcing from
the upper level weak shortwave, the mid level WAA (nose of LLJ)
and moisture push in. This will allow for at the very least rain
showers (80-90%). The strong deformation around 850mb to 500mb
will allow for a decent period of transient fgen to locally
increase rain rates for a period overnight. While instability
looks nearly absent in models we cant rule out some elevated
instability based on soundings bringing some rumbles of thunder
(10-20%) though nothing strong would be expected.

It should be noted that several models show mid level moisture
potentially becoming an area of uncertainty with respect to this
system. There appears to be some issues with drier air on the
north side of the low which could lead to less precip in some
areas. Overall the models do have some backfill of moisture in
the mid levels that would ease concerns regarding this dry air
and the CAMs certainly show more scattered to widespread showers
but there is a least a good chance (50%) that some areas see
less precip overall due to this dry air, primarily for areas in
the western parts of the CWA.

Overall this system will be a quick hitter with most if not all
of the rain occurring Friday evening/night with rain ending by
early Saturday morning.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

Rain will clear out by early Saturday morning leaving Saturday
to be fairly warm and dry, though remaining cloudy due to the
exiting system from Friday and the incoming system for Sunday.
The upper levels Saturday will become zonal which will set up
Sunday for the shortwave activity that will slide in.

There is certainly some uncertainty on the when precip will
begin with some models suggesting it may not start until Monday.
This is based upon uncertainty in where the shortwave within
the zonal pattern will set up in addition to whether forcing
will be enough. Given decent moisture within the column and some
mid level WAA we would expect at least some precip chances
(~40%) though the better chances certainly now seem further
south. However models do suggest better precip chances into
Monday and Monday evening/night though there remains uncertainty
as to when exactly the upper low and associated surface low
will push through and where they will track. While precip
remains very likely Monday/Monday night (95+%) due to the upper
low and surface low racking through with plenty of moisture and
forcing throughout the column, the timing is still uncertain
because it is not likely to rain all day and night but we do
know that the best timeframe is Monday/Monday night.

In addition to this there is a chance (~20%) for some thunder
with the system coming through Monday or Monday night with
slight potential (20%) for for some mixy precip on the backend
with the cooler temps sliding in behind the system though no
accumulations would be expected.

Precip chances will largely end by Wednesday with only lingering
chances Tuesday. However by the end of next week we will likely
see another warm up with temperatures perhaps reaching the 60s
Thursday but especially for Friday/Saturday.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Largely clear skies expected for the remainder of today with
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Into Friday
while clouds will be moving in ahead of the next system all
clouds will be VFR until likely Friday evening/night when lower
CIGS become more likely with rain and perhaps even some thunder.
Winds will remain from the west through the rest of today with
some breezy gusts though overnight winds will weaken and turn
southeast to east into Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High pressure will continue to build into the upper Great Lakes
Region tonight but likely will not be over the region until
Friday. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to
persist over the lake into the early evening with winds easing
overnight as the high pressure center moves toward Lake
Michigan. Light and variable winds will then persist over Lake
Michigan into Friday, before winds turn southeasterly ahead of
approaching low pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn
easterly and northerly with time as the low pressure passes
south of the lake on Saturday. Next potential period to watch
for Small Craft and Gale potential will be early next week with
a stronger system expected to push through.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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