Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
May 6, 2019

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 APR PRECIP     OCT-APR PREC    MAY 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              75            125               140
ANIMAS                        80            130               170
LOWER SAN JUAN                90            150                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         APR FLOW       OCT-APR FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               135%            110%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MAY 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                       66
VALLECITO                    38
LEMON                        32

TOTAL                        63

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    270   126    305    285    260    250    215
  Pagosa Springs           May-Jul    220   122    255    235    210    198    180
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    460   121    515    480    445    420    380
  Carracas, nr             May-Jul    355   118    410    375    340    315    300
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     67   124     76     71     63     58     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  May-Jul     56   124     65     60     52     47     45
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     75   115     86     80     71     66     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  May-Jul     62   115     73     67     58     53     54
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    295   140    330    310    280    265    210
  Arboles, nr              May-Jul    215   141    250    230    199    184    153
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Reservoir, Ba  Apr-Jul    255   131    305    270    235    215    194
  Vallecito Reservoir, Ba  May-Jul    220   129    270    235    200    180    171
San Juan River
  Navajo Reservoir, Archu  Apr-Jul    930   127   1060    970    870    810    735
  Navajo Reservoir, Archu  May-Jul    700   124    830    740    640    580    565
Florida River
  Lemon Reservoir, Durang  Apr-Jul     65   118     80     71     59     53     55
  Lemon Reservoir, Durang  May-Jul     59   120     74     65     53     47     49
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    535   129    685    555    500    460    415
  Durango                  May-Jul    455   125    605    475    420    380    365
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1420   129   1650   1500   1350   1280   1100
  Farmington               May-Jul   1120   127   1350   1200   1050    975    880
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     31   135     37     34     29     27     23
  Hesperus                 May-Jul     26   143     32     29     24     22   18.2
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1420   129   1660   1500   1350   1270   1100
  Bluff, nr                May-Jul   1100   129   1340   1180   1030    950    855
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     34   110     41     38     31     29     31
  Mancos, nr               May-Jul     26   108     33     30     23     21     24

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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