Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201033

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 23W from 05N-
20N, moving W around 15 kt. TPW imagery shows that the wave is
accompanied by a large sure of high moisture content. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 20W-28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42/43W from 02N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N-07N between
36W-41W. SAL is limiting showers over the remainder of the wave

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 51W from
11N-23N. This tropical wave originated from the subtropics.
Convection is currently limited due to dry air in the vicinity.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 05N-22N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 150 nm of the wave axis from 13N-22W
with some additional showers and tstorms between Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Expect scattered to widespread showers and
tstorms to continue over the NW Caribbean through today.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal near
12N17W to 08N30W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to
06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 28W-


A 1019 mb surface high is in the NE Gulf near 29N85W. Ridging
extends across most of the Gulf with the exception of the SE Gulf.
A surface trough extends across Florida from Cape Canaveral to
23N84W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen along and southeast
of a line from 29N83W to 23N88W. Similar activity is seen over the
Yucatan Channel. Cloudiness with isolated showers covers much of
the northern Gulf. The ASCAT pass from late Monday evening showed
fresh winds in the south-central Gulf with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere.

Surface ridging extending from the Bermuda high will maintain
mainly gentle to moderate east-southeast winds across the basin
through the period. In the SW Gulf, however, a surface trough and
the passage of a tropical wave on Wed night will support fresh to
locally strong winds most of the period. Expect showers and
tstorms to increase across the southern Gulf tonight and Wednesday
as a trough moves from east to west across the area.


Convection over the NW Caribbean is associated with a tropical
wave. See section above for details. Scattered moderate convection
is seen over northern Colombia and adjacent waters south of 12N
between 75W-80W. Drier air is over the E Caribbean E of 73W with
little to no significant showers. The latest ASCAT pass from
Monday evening shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean,
with fresh trades over the remainder of the central Caribbean.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 84W will exit the
basin tonight. The Bermuda high N of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will resume in
this region of the basin Fri evening and continue through Sat as
low pressure deepens over NW Colombia. The next tropical wave will
move across the Lesser Antilles on Wed night, but this will be a
rather dry wave.


Broad upper-level troughing is over the W Atlantic. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is over the Old Bahama Channel and
portions of the NW Bahamas from 22N-25.5N between 76W-80W.
Scattered showers and tstorms cover the area elsewhere from 20N-
32N between 66W-84W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 32N58W. In the far eastern
Atlantic, strong to near gale force NE winds are expected to
persist offshore Morocco and near the Canary Islands for the next
couple of days.

The remnants of a surface trough continue to support scattered
showers and tstms in the Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. These
showers will continue through today being supported by an upper
level low over the SW forecast waters. Surface ridging extending
from the Bermuda high will dominate the remainder of the region,
supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds most of the
week. Fresh trades are expected at night between Turks and Caicos
and Hispaniola.

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