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000
FNUS73 KAPX 260939
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Frost Pocket Rx Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
539 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Elevated fire danger will be in place across northern lower Michigan
this afternoon into early this evening. Southeast winds will
increase through the morning into this afternoon. Sustained wind
speeds of 10-15 mph are expected by late morning/afternoon with
gusts to 20-25 mph at times today. RHs are expected to mix down into
critical thresholds (20-25%) for a time this afternoon, but the
window for these critical RHs will be relatively short -- most
likely between 2 PM and 5 PM. Near-critical RHs (25-
30%) will be expected for a few hours afterwards into this evening
as moisture gradually increases across the area. Rain-free weather
is anticipated into this evening with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........22 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......3500-3900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good (692.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   1   3   5   9   17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  53  55  57  58  59  58
RH..............44  33  29  22  22  23  26
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..12  13  13  13  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.18  20  20  20  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.20  21  20  20  20  20  22
Vrate kt-ft.....692 765 742 763 751 738 798
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers late in the evening. Scattered rain
                    showers overnight, then rain showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........89 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......2800-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1000 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (556.0-676.0) decreasing to poor
                    (109.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........20  42  47  56  70  79  85  89  94  93  92  89
Weather cov.....                    ISO SCT SCT DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............57  56  53  50  49  49  49  48  48  48  49  50
RH..............29  34  43  50  52  56  61  71  77  83  86  89
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..13  13  13  10  10  10  12  12  12  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.23  23  23  21  21  21  22  22  22  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 2.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.21  20  16  15  15  16  17  17  17  18  18  17
Vrate kt-ft.....676 556 169 109 114 118 134 150 136 161 151 141
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    early in the morning. Rain showers likely early
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........63 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    32 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 26 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (154.0-647.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     86     84     81     76     70
Weather cov.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............51     54     59     63     68     72
RH..............89     87     91     86     75     66
20 ft wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      SW
20 ft wind spd..13     13     17     20     20     21
20 ft wind gust.25     25     29     31     31     32
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1000   1400   1600   2100   2500
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..S 17   S 18   S 24   SW 26  SW 24  SW 25
Vrate kt-ft.....154    181    332    433    514    614
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Jennifer Hansen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412465.0/APX
.DELDT 04/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hansenj4@michigan.gov