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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 111131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern is expected across the North Country over the next
week with multiple rounds of rainfall expected through the middle of
next week. Rainfall coupled with snowmelt will lead to sharp river
rises but area rivers are currently forecast to remain within
bankfull.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 726 AM EDT Thursday...No major changes this morning as
rainfall is just beginning to slide into far southern St.
Lawrence County. Rainfall amounts just to the south and west
overnight have ranges from less then a tenth of an inch upwards
to half of an inch. The heaviest rain could impact northern New
York this morning and will be something we keep an eye on but
rivers are expected to be able to handle this wave of
precipitation. We will get a better idea of snow melt and
additional rainfall later today which will allow us to better
assess any possible flood threat heading into Friday for area
rivers.

Previous Discussion...We`ve got a few more hours of dry weather
ahead before rainfall ahead of a warm front begins to work into
the North Country. Rain should hold off through daybreak but
will quickly overspread the region by 10 AM. Latest high-res and
global guidance shows a weak area of frontogenesis/enhanced
lift along the frontal boundary where convergence will be
maximized which could support some brief moderate rainfall.
However, mostly light rain is expected this morning into early
this afternoon before a break in rainfall is becoming
increasingly likely. A "dry slot" looks poised to move overhead
by mid- afternoon which should bring a brief end to rainfall
across the region but cloud cover will remain abundant with
little, if any, sunshine expected today. Still, even with
abundant cloud cover, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid 50s to mid 60s which is quite the sign that seasons are
changing across the North Country.

An impressively strong 65-70 knot low level jet is expected to move
overhead this evening and will shift eastward by daybreak on Friday.
Surface winds will quickly become gusty around or just after sunset
tonight as strong gradient winds develop in response to a sub 980 mb
low tracking west of the St. Lawrence River. Southeast winds of 15
to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected with the strongest
winds expected along the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack
Mountains. Given rainfall will be moving back into the region this
evening, a strong inversion around 1000 ft is expected to develop
and prevent the mixing of the stronger winds aloft down to the
surface. It should be noted that some of the high-res guidance like
the NAM12 shows some mixing of these stronger winds but it looks
like we should hover just below wind advisory criteria at this time.

Rain showers are expected to continue throughout the day on Friday.
There is a bit of uncertainty to rainfall totals as we head into
Friday with the deterministic guidance showing nearly double from
what the NBM is currently showing. If you look at all the individual
perturbations of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, our rainfall estimates
are likely on the low side and we could see upwards of an 1.25"
across southern Vermont with a sharp north/south gradient in
rainfall totals. If higher rainfall totals do occur, it`s feasible
to think we could see some localized river flooding, especially at
Otter Creek near Center Rutland. See the hydrology discussion below
for more details.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 AM EDT Thursday...We`ll continue to see rounds of showers
through the weekend as the upper trough pivots overhead. Several
shortwaves/surface troughs will rotate around the low, bringing
periods of rain to the region. Flow will turn more toward the
west/northwest Saturday into Saturday night, allowing showers to be
more focused in the higher terrain, especially along the favored
western slopes. The trough axis shifts east Saturday night, giving
us a brief break in the precipitation, but another shortwave pushes
down through the northwest flow on Sunday/Sunday night, producing
another round of showers. Precipitation type will primarily be rain,
though the higher summits could see some wet snow accumulation,
especially during the overnight hours. Additional liquid
precipitation amounts through the weekend will range from a tenth to
a half of an inch, so rivers and streams will continue to run high
into early next week. Winds will be on the breezy side much of this
period, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected. Saturday will be the
cooler of the two days, with highs generally in the lower 40s to
lower 50s. 925mb temps warm a bit for Sunday, so expect highs to
reach into the 50s in most spots. Both nights will see lows in the
low 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Thursday...The upper trough finally exits to the
east by early next week, making way for brief ridging. Hence expect
at least a couple of dry days, along with a warming trend heading
into Tuesday. The pattern becomes amplified thereafter as low
pressure develops over the Upper Midwest. Warm air advection out
ahead of this system will bring increasing rain chances for
Wednesday, though solutions differ on exact evolution of this low
and a potential secondary system, which plays heavily on
timing/extent of precipitation. Have stayed close to the National
Blend of Models for this time frame given the model differences.
Highs by mid week will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with some
locations possibly approaching 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 12Z Friday...A warm front is lifting north this morning with
rain overspreading the area with widespread MVFR conditions
expected through 18Z. A lull in precipitation is expected
between 18Z and 03Z which should allow for improvement back to
VFR for most locations but pockets of MVFR will likely linger at
KMPV and KSLK. Gusty southeasterly winds up to 30 knots will
develop after 00Z at all terminals through the overnight period.
In addition, low level winds aloft will strengthen rapidly with
winds up to 65 knots at 2000 ft. This will yield impressive
wind shear and strong mechanical turbulence due to the strong low
level jet.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Snowmelt, warm conditions, and rain will result in river rises
through Friday. At this time, it appears that rainfall will not
be sufficient to produce river flooding, but the East Branch of
the Ausable River and Otter Creek are forecast to approach
bankfull. Any increase in the rainfall forecast or expected
snowmelt could result in minor flooding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK and KPBG are experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be
sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV