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000
FXUS61 KBTV 141910
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Intermittent rain showers continue through the overnight hours,
becoming more scattered on Monday. Dry and pleasant spring weather
is on tap on Tuesday and Wednesday before widespread rain
returns to end the work week. The weekend looks mainly dry with
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Rain showers have taken a little longer to
arrive across the region early this afternoon, but they have and the
remainder of the daylight hours will not be quite as nice as the
first half of today. Temperatures have topped for most locations and
should generally hold steady in the mid 40s to low 50s with
intermittent rain showers and overcast conditions. A surface low
pressure will track just south of our region, and provide the
forcing for severe thunderstorms across Pennsylvania into southern
New England. Despite the -25C cold pool at 500mb and remnant
elevated mixed layer, a warm 700-500mb layer and 60-80 kt shear
between 600-400mb will suppress any potential for any storms to grow
upscale or become strong. That being said, locally or briefly
heavier showers are certainly possible late this afternoon into the
evening hours. This is because PWATs are around 0.5 to 0.7 inches
across the region, which are between the 60th and 70th percentile of
the SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site.
Finally, it will be quite breezy as well with southerly or west
southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph, with 20 to 25 mph gusts at times
across the valley locales due to channelized flow. After midnight
tonight, the intermittent rain showers become more scattered and
terrain driven. Snow levels gradually lower to 2500-3000 ft by
around daybreak Monday, so lingering rain showers could mix with
snow or change to snow showers across the Adirondack High Peaks or
northern Green Mountains. But no travel impacts are expected as any
snow accumulations look to remain above the highest passes across
the region. When it`s all said and done, rainfall amounts generally
will be in the 0.1 to 0.25 inches range, locally up to 0.4 inches.
Temperatures would be rather slow to fall overnight, only dropping
into the low 40s across the Champlain and St Lawrence valley. Even
colder hollows would struggle to reach freezing, so overall a rather
uneventful period of weather through Monday morning.

On Monday, forecast highs should top out close to climatological
normals, which are in the low to mid 50s. Expect plenty of clouds to
start the day, with intervals of sunshine developing during the
morning hours. However, we remain under broad cyclonic flow thanks
to a vertically stacked upper low pressure system meandering across
northern Quebec. The lobes of weak shortwave energy rounding the
trough from Ontario into northern New England mean that clouds will
likely fill back in by mid day into the afternoon hours with
occasional light rain showers. That being said, the southern
Champlain Valley and southern Vermont has the best chance of seeing
more sunshine, and if that is the case, some locations south of
Route 4 could see highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Snow levels are
expected to rise to 3500-4000 ft as the day progresses, so any minor
accumulations will be confined the Adirondack High Peaks and
northern Greens, above any mountain pass. Forecast soundings suggest
rather deep boundary layer mixing up to 850 and even 800mb for
certain sites, so west or northwest winds could gust 25 to 30 mph at
times. Heading into Monday night, colder air will be moving in aloft
but it looks like it will take longer for the cold air to arrive
below 850mb. So expect isolated to scattered showers to linger for
the first half of the overnight hours, and once the drier air
arrives, temperatures should fall more quickly during the latter
half of the overnight hours. Overnight lows for Monday night are
forecast to be in the mid 30s to near 40 across the St Lawrence and
Champlain valley, but upper 20s to just above freezing in the colder
hollows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday continues to look like a seasonable
early spring day with no precipitation. Enough low level moisture
will swing southeastward around the backside of the lingering trough
to aid in mainly fair weather cumulus, with perhaps a mostly cloud
sky at times, more likely as you go north and eastward. Temperatures
should rebound into the 50s, with somewhat of a north to south
gradient in addition to the typical elevational differences given
cooler air aloft in northern areas. A modest pressure gradient with
high pressure to our northwest and low pressure to our northeast
will help deepen the boundary layer to at least the 800 millibar
level. As a result of mixing dry air downward, we continue to lower
minimum humidity values. The lack of stronger winds and recent wet
conditions should keep fire danger concerns at bay. The relatively
light flow will support decoupling after dark, with temperatures in
most areas dropping back to near or below freezing by Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected during
this period, although a period of unsettled conditions is expected
mainly midday Thursday through Friday.

A strong ridge will build into Wednesday. Therefore, beautiful sunny
spring weather can be expected. Given position of surface high
pressure to our north and modest, shallow cold air advection,
temperatures will be held to near normal values in the 50s, locally
60s in the lower Connecticut River Valley and southern St. Lawrence
Valley, despite abundant sunshine. Winds look rather light,
especially outside of the wide valleys, with weak flow aloft.

The weather becomes more interesting late in the week, although the
next system looks to be in a weakening phase as it approaches our
region. Thursday`s high temperatures look more uncertain than
typical aside from Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom, per NBM max
temperature standard deviation, probably owing to differences in
precipitation timing. So assuming we see ample sunshine, I would not
be surprised if the official forecast trends warmer, which currently
suggests most likely highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
With a later arrival of rain, given the warm pre-frontal air mass,
it would be reasonable to see temperatures surge well into the 60s
in the deeper valleys. Per GEFS mean 850 millibar temperatures, the
largest anomalies will be focused up the St. Lawrence Valley, but
precipitation is more likely to arrive there during the morning.

In the latest available global ensemble cluster analysis, three of
the four scenarios show a stronger ridge/slower progression of the
next trough from the west to keep most or all of the region dry
through at least 8 AM Thursday. Therefore, only a slight chance of
rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning is reasonable.
Thereafter, a slug of light to moderate rain is expected to
eventually move through but model agreement is poor on both timing
and spatial distribution of relatively heavy precipitation. In
general, better chances of higher precipitation amounts will be as
you go westward. The PoPs during the Thursday afternoon through
Friday afternoon period largely match this idea.

For the weekend, signals are strong for a cool and mainly dry period
as low level flow becomes westerly/northwesterly behind a cold front
dropping in from our northwest. One ensemble cluster with multi-
model support suggests near advisory level wind gusts on Saturday,
but the general idea of gusty westerly winds looks reasonable. For
now we show gusts mainly 20-25 MPH as the most likely scenario,
enough for a brisk day but nothing more. Enough cyclonic flow will
be in place behind the front to potentially spark showers, but this
pattern suggests meager precipitation amounts if anything develops.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across the region at
the start of the TAF period, but ceilings are expected to become
mostly MVFR between 19-23z from southwest to northeast. Locally
IFR ceilings are possible between 00-12z tonight. Rain showers
are light enough to keep visibilities at generally VFR, but
could become MVFR during times of heavier showers. Rain showers
are expected to be most widespread between 22z and 04z, becoming
showery and scattered thereafter. Ceilings are mostly MVFR to
start the day on Monday, but trend VFR towards the end of the
TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the WSW up to 10
knots but occasional gusts up to 20 knots will be possible at
times throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Chai
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV