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000
FXUS61 KBTV 122317
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
717 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected to continue into tomorrow with some
strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon, which
could bring gusty winds. A cold front will allow for some
mountain rain showers to mix with or change to snow tonight and
tomorrow morning. Continued shower activity is expected
throughout the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 705 PM EDT Friday...After a very warm day much cooler air
is advecting into our region on southwest to west winds on
backside of strong 982mb low pres just se of Hudson Bay.
Rainfall amounts have generally ranged between 0.25 and 0.75
with localized amounts of 1.0 to 1.5 in Essex County, NY,
central CPV, and near Tupper Lake, these amounts have not caused
any issues. The threat for thunderstorms and localized heavier
rainfall rates has ended as stabilize increases under caa. Temps
will continue to drop overnight into Saturday with rain showers
changing to snow showers by morning acrs the northern Dacks.
Some minor snow accumulation is possible above 2000 feet.
Otherwise, band of steadier rain over northern NY/VT wl lift
north of the International Border by 02z this evening. Have
updated pops to reflect this thinking, along with additional
showers redeveloping toward midnight over northern NY and
spreading east into VT by early morning.

Previous discussion below:
Breaks in clouds have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s and
70s for some today for some. This will provide extra
instability for low topped thunderstorms to develop and move
across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. It`s only a
narrow slice of time where the wind shear and 300-400 J/kg
surface based CAPE will overlap favorably for storms, but it
should be just enough to bring a line of thunderstorms pivoting
west to northeast across northern New York and Vermont. Within
this line, isolated to strong thunderstorms with locally gusty
winds are possible, and a brief weak tornado is not out of the
question. However, most dew points remain in the 40s and 50s,
and lapse rates are not impressive, which will limit our
instability potential.

Additional QPF over the next 12 hours will amount to roughly 0.05-
0.75", highly dependent on where thunderstorms occur and if any
thunderstorms train. Multiple rivers are at bankful, and the Ausable
River at Ausable Forks has reached Minor Flood Stage. We`re
expecting it to return to Action Stage late this evening. Other
small streams could produce some flooding of low lying areas like
farm fields. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could also could some
isolated flash flooding.

Winds will continue to be breezy, however, a low level jet streak
will move away from our forecast area, leaving southerly wind gusts
around 20-30 knots for the rest of the day and much of the overnight
period. Thunderstorm risk will drop off tonight as a cold front
comes through and drops lows into the mid-30s to mid-40s. Some
higher elevation areas will see rain showers turning to rain/snow
mixed showers or even snow showers. Tomorrow will be cooler with
continued rain showers as low pressure crosses the forecast
area. Then, chilly lows in the 30s for tomorrow night as
conditions dry out. Overall, only minor snow accumulations
expected at higher elevations, perhaps a few inches at most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Showers will again develop across NY
on Sunday and spread into Vermont Sunday afternoon as another
shortwave rotates around the main low centered to our north.
Showers will quickly exit Sunday night and the trough pushes
through. Day time highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
with overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. Overall, QPF will be
minimal on Sunday, just a couple tenths of an inch or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Moving into next week, things will
remain unsettled as the low to our north sends another
shortwave through on Monday, although at this time, it looks
like most the precipitation will be along the higher terrain.
The mid- week will see a brief reprieve as ridging will bring
dry condition for Tuesday and early Wednesday before another low
pressure system moves in Wednesday night, bringing us multiple
rounds of precipitation for the back half of the week. Overall,
temperatures will continue to be more spring-like with highs in
the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A combination of MVFR and VFR cigs and vis
will continue for the next several hours before trending toward
mostly VFR for several hours. However, as additional rain
showers and westerly flow develops, expect cigs to lower back to
MVFR at SLK/MPV/EFK and MSS toward 06z with low MVFR conditions
possible by 12z. A period of IFR cigs are possible at
MSS/SLK/MPV and EFK on Saturday morning into the early aftn as a
mix of rain and mtn snow showers continue at times on Saturday.
West to southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots develop on Saturday
with localized higher gusts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavier showers and associated higher rainfall rates are
quickly ending across the region. Rainfall amounts have ranged
mainly in the 0.25 to 0.75 inches with localized 1.0 to 1.5
inches near Tupper Lake, Eastern Essex County, NY and parts of
the central CPV. Minor flooding is expected to continue on the
Ausable and Ottauquechee River thru this evening, otherwise we
will continue to watch the Otter Creek. No other flood issues
are anticipated at this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK and KPBG are experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be
sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Taber
HYDROLOGY...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV