Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 181432

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

High pressure will deliver a fairly quiet and cold start to the
week. Still watching a coastal low that will develop midweek, but
current indications are that this low will remain well to our south
and be a non-factor for us in the North Country. Temperatures will
be around 10 to 20 degrees F below normal, with the cold
temperatures lasting through the week as we remain under
predominantly northwesterly flow.


As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather over the North Country
this morning with the main forecast challenge being the cold
temperatures and the degree of warming that will be achieved
this afternoon. Updated the temperature grids to capture the
rapid warmup this morning courtesy of the strong March sun.
While we saw very cold overnight lows, temperatures have jumped
10 to 20 degrees over the last hour, and should continue to warm
under mostly clear skies. The air mass overhead is still very
cold however, and with 925 mb temps around -15C and a well mixed
boundary layer this afternoon, temperatures will be capped in
the low to mid 20s this afternoon.

Previous discussion...Cold and dry weather will continue
through the early part of the week with high pressure building
over much of the Northeast CONUS. A couple of shortwaves will
swing down across the region as they rotate around an upper low
over Quebec, but given the very dry airmass in place, don`t
expect much more than some scattered clouds. Winds will be a
little breezy each afternoon, but no where near what we
experienced on Saturday. Temperatures will remain cool, with
highs in the upper teens to lower 20s today, and just a few
degrees warmer on Monday. Tonight`s lows will generally be 0 to
10 above in the wider valleys while the mountains will drop into
the -5 to +5 range.


As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...Continued cyclonic flow across area
with another weak shortwave rotating to the international border
before getting stretched out and lack of moisture as well.
Basically, continued sunny but it still remains colder than
normal with overnight lows ranging from -5 to +10 and highs in
the 20s with light winds.


As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...No changes from previous discussion,
thus attached previous discussion with a few edits as needed.
Largely, uneventful with some slight indications of a slightly
closer storm track for next system but still far enough for any
problems at this time.

Long term will continue to support mean mid/upper level trof across
the eastern conus with undefined split flow between northern and
southern streams. Latest guidance shows northern stream jet with
northwest flow aloft prevails across the northern Great Lakes into
the NE CONUS with no interaction with southern stream...which should
keep the storm track to our south this upcoming week.

This pattern supports much below normal temps and limited chances
for precip...and is very similar to our pattern in early January,
except now we are in mid/late March and temps will be warmer.
Interesting GFS bukfit for BTV shows only 0.01 qpf through 12z
Thursday...indicating how dry the northwest flow will be. Still have
to watch southern stream energy ejecting toward the mid atlantic
states and associated sfc low pres...but all guidance shows this
system staying to our south attm...with no real northern stream
interaction. However, Canadian suggests an inside 40N/70W benchmark
for Thursday, thus with trends of closer and closer to area with
last systems will need to keep a watchful eye.

The upper level pattern and associated pieces of short wave energy
becomes very complex and messy toward mid and late week, which
results in plenty of uncertainty. The combination of departing low
pres southeast of the BM and high pres anchored over Hudson Bay will
help to provide region with a modifying arctic air thru late week.
ECMWF and GEM are much more aggressive with deepening trof and
associated low level caa for next weekend with another shot of
reinforcing cold air possible...which seems reasonable given upper
level pattern. Progged 850mb temps warm between -8c and -10c by
midweek supporting highs back into the mid 20s to mid/upper 30s.
Little change anticipated in 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles through
most of the week and into early next weekend. Temps will slowly
modify toward normal levels by Friday...before additional cooling
possibly arrives next weekend or early the following week.

Maple Sugaring weekends across NY/VT/NH next weekend and it
looks like sunshine, above freezing daytime and sub-freezing
nighttime temperatures will cooperate late this week and next


Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period with high pressure ushering in a much drier air
mass. A few low clouds will be possible Sunday afternoon. Light
northwesterly winds will persist through the forecast period,
with periodic gusts to around 15 kt possible at KSLK.


Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.




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