Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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FNUS73 KDLH 111041
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Intagrator RX...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
541 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Clear conditions to start out this morning will become
increasingly cloudy by early afternoon as a system will bring rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms for northeastern Minnesota.
Precipitation onset may be delayed or only sprinkles as the rain
fights to overcome the dry air near the surface as minimum RH dips
down to the mid to upper 20s. Nevertheless, showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the burn site this
evening and into overnight tonight.
Skies will clear throughout the morning on Sunday and will lead
to even lower RHs in northeastern Minnesota, with widespread low
20 percents and isolated areas reaching into the teens. Winds will
also increase out of the northwest at 10-15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph. While currently marginal, if the forecasted winds trend
any higher, a Red Flag Warning may be needed for Sunday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the south
around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL increasing to 5800 ft AGL late in
the morning, then decreasing to 3300 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest 10
to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26000 knot-ft) increasing to good
(43900-57700 knot-ft) late in the morning, then
decreasing to fair (28900 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............54 56 59 60 63 63 64 66
RH..............57 51 42 39 35 35 35 34
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W SW S S
20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.9 11 11 12 13 13 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.8 4.4 3.3 2.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W W SW SW S
Transp wind spd.9 10 12 12 12 12 10 13
Haines index....4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100026 47 56 57 58 44 29 29
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the evening and overnight. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the late evening and
overnight, then slight chance of rain showers
after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2200, then 2 until 0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the late evening
and overnight.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (8700-28400 knot-ft) decreasing to
poor (5500 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 40 40 50 40 20
LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 1
Temp............65 62 56 54 53 53
RH..............37 43 55 64 69 71
20 ft wind......S 9 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 8 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.14 16 16 15 14 13
Mix hgt (ft)....2200 800 700 500 600 600
Transport wind..S 15 S 13 S 15 S 15 SW 12 SW 13
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100028 9 9 7 6 6
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph shifting to the
northwest 7 to 13 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 9 mph increasing to 14 to 22
mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4400-14800 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (130400-152600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............52 56 62 68 70 71
RH..............77 69 52 32 23 21
20 ft wind......W 6 NW 7 N 9 NW 11 NW 12 NW 12
20 ft wind gust.12 13 14 16 18 18
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1200 2700 6100 7900 7700
Transport wind..W 9 N 14 N 16 N 21 NW 21 NW 22
Haines index....5 4 4 4 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10004 15 38 109 142 146
$$
Forecaster...Krystal
Requested by...Jon Knapper
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413732.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathon.knapper@usda.gov