184
FNUS73 KMPX 131612
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Butternut Valley...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1112 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office at 952-361-6671 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Butternut Valley RX, the main uncertainty is in the wind
direction. Winds should be primarily out of the north at around
10 mph, but since speeds are light the direction could vary a
little east or west of north at times.

Temperatures will climb into the lower 70s which will help lower
RH values to near 25 to 30 percent by this afternoon. Otherwise
expect filtered sunshine from hazy wildfire smoke to linger
through tonight.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Filtered sunshine (15-25 percent). Areas of smoke
                    early in the afternoon.
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Max 74.
RH..................39 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /57800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /89700 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
Temp............68  70  72  73  73  73  72  71  67  62  59  57
RH..............39  33  30  28  28  27  28  29  34  43  49  53
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..10  13  13  13  13  14  13  12  9   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.16  18  18  17  17  17  15  14  13  12  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.5 5.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  16  16  16  16  15  15  16  13  12  12  13
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (85000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 16 mph shifting to the east 12
                    to 13 mph overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Beitlich
Requested by...Brad Bolduan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413983.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brad.Bolduan@state.mn.us