Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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465 FXUS61 KCLE 102017 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 417 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge will briefly build over the region this evening into tonight before low pressure moving east across Michigan and southern Ontario pushes a cold front across the area Saturday. A trough will linger over the region into Saturday night, but expect high pressure to return Sunday into early Monday. The next system will approach from the west Monday afternoon or evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A ridge will briefly build over the region through this evening and diurnal cumulus will scatter out this evening and anticipate mostly clear to clear skies for the majority of tonight. Temperatures will fall into 40s tonight with the warmest temps in the upper 40s across NW OH and along the immediate lakeshore, but interior NE OH and NW PA will dip into the lower 40s. A few spots in the snowbelt region may attempt to fall into the upper 30s and lighter winds may allow some very patchy frost to develop, but temperatures will likely be a hair too warm and winds may be a bit too high. Left frost out of the forecast for now but will continue to monitor forecast temperature trends. By Saturday morning, low pressure will drop southeast out of the Upper Great Lakes with a cold front sweeping across the CWA Saturday morning into the afternoon as the low tracks east across Michigan and southern Ontario. Clouds increase from the west late tonight through early Saturday morning and PoPs will ramp up throughout the morning as the front begins to track across the CWA. Precip will mostly likely be light and possibly struggle to reach the surface at the onset, but all locations should see at least a brief period of rain Saturday morning. The upper low will meander across the region through the remainder of the near term period, resulting in periodic, scattered showers primarily in the eastern half of the CWA. There may be sufficient instability for some thunder and perhaps small hail as the cool core of the low passes over the area. Saturday`s highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. It will also be quite breezy on Saturday afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph possible primarily west of I-71. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Conditions will be drying out on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds east through the Ohio Valley. The upper level low starting the day near Erie, PA will move off the East Coast by Sunday evening. Can not rule out a couple light morning showers in the far east but these should end during the morning. A cooler airmass will linger in Northwest Pennsylvania on Sunday with high temperatures limited to around 60 degrees while warm advection develops in our western counties with highs recovering into the low 70s. Some mid and high cloud is possible ahead of another piece of shortwave energy moving through the northwest flow aloft. By Monday, a closed upper level low will be moving east across the Plains states while another upper level low passes near James Bay. Monday will feature above normal temperatures in the warm sector ahead of a cold front slowly sinking south into the Great Lakes. This front tends to stall north of Lake Erie on Monday with some amplification of the upper level ridge moving out of the Plains. Moisture will be on the increase Monday afternoon and night with marginal instability developing across mainly northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms can be expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term will start off with active weather as energy streams north ahead of the trough over the Mississippi Valley. Tuesday looks to be the wettest day of the week with good moisture convergence as the front eventually starts to settle south into the area. Surface low pressure will slide east through the Ohio Valley and expect instability to be limited north of the low. Temperatures drop back into the 60s with clouds and showers. The trough shifts to the Carolina Coast by Wednesday with high pressure returning to the Central Great Lakes. Showers should generally be ending with clouds clearing and temperatures trending warmer as the ridge builds aloft towards the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR with scattered cumulus will persist through this afternoon before skies clear tonight. Clouds increase from the west Saturday morning as a cold front approaches and showers will progress east across the CWA throughout the morning. There may be brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility within the rain, however VFR will likely prevail at most terminals. Moisture appears to be a bit more higher at eastern terminals (specifically KYNG/KCAK) and ceilings are more likely to drop to MVFR at these locations. Northwest winds 6 to 12 knots with periodic gusts to 20 knots will become light and variable this evening before shifting to the south/southwest late tonight. Winds will become more westerly as the front crosses the area with sustained winds reaching to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots likely by the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Non-VFR possible in showers Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. && .MARINE... A ridge will build east across Lake Erie tonight with winds backing to the south. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots ahead of a low pressure system moving from Michigan towards Lake Ontario. This system will pull a cold front east across Lake Erie with winds veering to northwest behind the front. Conditions will be close to needing a Small Craft Advisory by Saturday night for the Ohio waters, generally east of the Lake Erie Islands. Waves are expected to build to 3 to 5 feet but the duration will only be for about 12 hours. A ridge will build north into the Ohio Valley on Sunday with marine conditions improving quickly. Southwest winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of a front slowly approaching from the north Sunday night into Monday. This front will stall near or just north of the lake into Tuesday before finally pushing south. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Maines SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Maines MARINE...KEC