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000
FXUS62 KJAX 261000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
600 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Periods of IFR visibilities are expected at VQQ through around
sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least
08Z at the regional terminals. Periods of scattered to broken
stratocumulus ceilings of 5,000-6,000 feet are expected through
tonight. An easterly wind surge later this afternoon and evening
could advect a few light showers or sprinkles towards the SGJ
terminal, but confidence was too low to include anything other
than vicinity shower coverage in the SGJ TAF towards 09Z Saturday
at this time. A period of MVFR ceilings could accompany this
shower activity that will be approaching SGJ during the predawn
hours on Saturday. Light southeasterly surface winds this morning
will shift to easterly by 16Z, with sustained surface speeds
increasing to around 15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals, CRG, and JAX by 20Z, with speeds elsewhere increasing
to 10-15 knots. Easterly surface winds will then subside to 5-10
knots by 01Z Saturday at the inland terminals, while sustained
speeds remain around 10 knots at the coastal terminals through the
overnight hours tonight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Overnight surface analysis depicts a weak frontal boundary
stalling near the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1031 millibars) was building over
New England and the Mid-Atlantic states in the wake of this
frontal boundary, with this feature beginning to wedge down the
Carolina coastline. Aloft...ridging centered over eastern portions
of the East Pacific was building northeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico and into the southeastern states, with this feature located
downstream of a large trough that blankets the western half of the
nation. A few patches of stratocumulus clouds were drifting across
the skies of northeast and north central FL, with fair skies
otherwise prevailing across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley.
Temperatures at 09Z were generally in the low to mid 60s across
most of our region, with dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A loose local pressure gradient to the south of the stalling
frontal boundary over southeast GA may allow for patches of fog to
form across inland portions of southeast GA southwestward through
the Suwannee Valley during the predawn and early morning hours.
Any fog that manages to develop will dissipate shortly after
sunrise this morning.

Ridging aloft will continue to build northeastward from the Gulf
of Mexico over our area today, which will result in the weak, dry
frontal boundary that is stalled over southeast GA dissipating
tonight as it reaches the FL/GA border. The bigger story will be a
tightening local pressure gradient from north to south this
afternoon as strong high pressure situated over New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states wedges down the southeastern seaboard.
Light south-southeasterly winds this morning will shift to east-
northeasterly this afternoon, with breezy conditions expected at
most locations during the mid to late afternoon hours. This wind
surge will likely be accompanied by an increasing coverage of
marine stratocumulus advecting off the adjacent Atlantic waters,
with this cloudiness quickly spreading westward across our region
late this afternoon and this evening. Lighter winds and plenty of
sunshine this morning will boost early afternoon temperatures to
the upper 80s for locations west of the I-95 corridor, while lower
80s prevail for areas along and east of I-95. Temperatures will
slowly fall this afternoon as the breezy maritime air mass
overspreads our region.

High pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard overnight, with weak coastal troughing likely developing
over the northeast FL waters. Breezy and covergent onshore low
level flow and PWATS increasing to around 1.5 inches may develop a
few coastal showers towards sunrise on Saturday, especially for
locations south of St. Augustine. Multi-layered cloudiness will
increase across our area as marine stratocumulus advects onshore
and cirrus spilling overtop of the ridge centered to the southwest
of or region invades and overspreads our area overnight. An
onshore breeze will keep coastal lows in the upper 60s to around
70, while gradually decoupling winds inland during the overnight
hours allow lows to fall back to the low and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Strong surface high pressure over New England wedges down the
eastern seaboard as ridging aloft amplifies over the eastern US.
Prevailing subsidence will lead to a mainly dry and warm weekend.
However, a weak coastal trough may shift onshore Saturday morning
bringing a few light showers, mainly to areas south of St.
Augustine. Breezy easterly winds continue with sustained winds
of 10-15 mph and gusts around 20-25 mph. Due to onshore flow,
temperatures will have an east-west gradient with highs in the
upper 70s along the coast to low/mid 80s further inland. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Warm and mostly dry conditions continue through the week. Surface
high pressure remains parked to our east through the week as flow
gradually shifts to southerly. Upper level ridging over the
eastern US begins to flatten early next week as a shortwave trough
swings through the US. Its associated surface cold front weakens
and stalls generally to the northwest, extending the ongoing dry
spell. Above normal temperatures with highs rising into the upper
80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A frontal boundary situated over the GA waters this morning will
stall over the northeast FL waters this afternoon before
dissipating tonight. Meanwhile, strong high pressure building
over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states in the wake of this
front will wedge down the southeastern seaboard beginning this
afternoon, resulting in strengthening onshore winds and building
seas. Winds may approach Caution levels this afternoon, especially
over the GA waters. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore
and offshore today.

Onshore winds and seas will reach Caution levels throughout our
local waters this evening and tonight, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions becoming likely on Saturday and Saturday night for the
offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL, where seas will build
to 6-7 feet. Seas for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast
FL and the offshore waters adjacent to southeast GA will peak in
the 4-6 foot range, with 3-5 foot seas forecast for the near shore
waters adjacent to southeast GA. High pressure will then shift
southward while gradually weakening late this weekend, with this
feature then becoming anchored off the southeastern seaboard for
much of next week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from
Sunday afternoon through the early portions of the upcoming week.
Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail throughout our local waters by late
Tuesday.

Rip Currents: A lingering long period east-northeasterly ocean
swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place at all area
beaches through early this afternoon. Strengthening onshore winds
later this afternoon will increase the risk to high at the
northeast FL beaches. A High rip current risk is likely at all
area beaches this weekend due to gusty onshore winds and breakers
building to the 3-5 foot range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River have
crested, but Moderate flooding near the Three Rivers Estates
gauge will continue through Saturday night, with water levels
then gradually falling, but remaining in minor flood for much of
next week. Water levels near the gauge at Hildreth on the lower
Santa Fe will also gradually subside, with minor flooding
expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Water levels are
expected to fall below flood stage along upper portions of the
Suwannee River near the gauge at Suwannee Springs early this
morning. Minor flooding will otherwise continue along most of
the lower Suwannee River through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  62  83  61 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  80  67  78  66 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  84  65  80  64 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  81  68  79  67 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  87  63  83  60 /   0   0  20   0
OCF  87  63  84  62 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$