121
ACUS03 KWNS 170726
SWODY3
SPC AC 170725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of central Kansas
into central/eastern Nebraska on Sunday. Large hail and damaging
gusts will be the main hazards, though a tornado or two also will be
possible.

...Central Plains vicinity...

A somewhat low-amplitude upper shortwave trough will develop
east/northeast from the central/southern Rockies into the central
Plains through Sunday evening. Moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow
will overspread the OK/TX Panhandles into KS/NE ahead of the trough.
At the surface, a dryline will extend southward from west-central NE
to near the OK/TX border by mid/late afternoon. To the east of the
dryline, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common. Strong heating
and steep to very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree
of capping across the region. This is mainly due to warm temps in
the 850-700 mb layer. However, some guidance depicts early
convection ongoing across NE Sunday morning. If this occurs, this
could impact the airmass and subsequent convective development
during the late afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, southeasterly
low-level flow will provide convergence along the dryline as
large-scale ascent increases by 21-00z.

Supercell wind profiles and an otherwise favorable low- and
upper-level pattern should support isolated to scattered severe
convection. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat dry midlevels
will support a risk for damaging gusts, while very steep midlevel
lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs suggest large-hail
potential exists. The tornado risk is somewhat more uncertain given
marginal low-level moisture.

A more conditional risk will extend southward along the TX/OK border
near the dryline. Better low-level moisture will exist further
south, but forcing for ascent will be weaker. If a storm can
develop, severe gusts and large hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

$$