Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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285 FXUS63 KABR 111927 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 227 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another relatively mild and dry day Sunday (Highs about 10F above normal). - Low chances for showers/weak thunderstorms Sunday night/Monday in western and central South Dakota. - Precipitation chances return to the area early Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening (30-70% chance). && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A weak front will cross the Dakotas tonight and early Sunday. Not much for thermal advection, just a wind shift as the storm track remain under the influence of this northwest flow regime and the associated wave is way up in eastern Canada. Another northwest flow wave crosses the region late Sunday early Monday for some low chances for moisture. Soundings just show some mid-level moisture and limited instability. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Ensembles are in agreement with a weak shortwave exiting the area Monday morning and a weak ridge moving in Monday into Monday evening. An elongated surface high will sit to our north as well through the day keeping the area dry. This ridge quickly will exit off to the east/southeast as a trough sets up to our west, with the axis from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward into Idaho by 12Z Tuesday. A surface low will be positioned just ahead of this trough with the stationary, turning warm front, draped across the CWA from northwest to southeast. This wave and surface low pushes east through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening with the cold front part of the system forecasted to push eastward over the CWA early Wednesday. The shortwave will then exit our area towards the end of the week with ensembles differing on timing and intensity as it does so. Another surface low will swing down from the northwest during this time, associated with its incoming weak wave. Precipitation wise, ensembles indicate rain moving in from the west/northwest (minor timing differences between the models) early Tuesday morning and overspreading the CWA by Tuesday afternoon and rain shower chances continuing into the night. NBM indicates our highest pops (35-65%) will be mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening for now. Rain chances continue into Wednesday (20-45%) before diminishing west to east Wednesday evening. Probability of QPF> 0.25" for this time ranges from 40-75% with GEFS being the most aggressive in the highest QPF. Prob of 0.50" ranges from 10-20% EC and 10-45% GEFS. GEFS prob of CAPE>500 j/kg and shear>30kts remains low for any organized severe at 5-10% across south central SD, but there should be enough energy for general thunder Tuesday afternoon and evening in the warm sector of the low from north central to south central SD. Additional pops (15-30%) are noted with NBM with the following system for Friday, but low confidence on this. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will range in the upper 60s into the lower to mid 70s. Little cooler on Wednesday behind the cold front, back into the mid to upper 60s/lower 70s. Temps rebound a bit for the end of the week, back into the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. West winds will shift to north Sunday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Connelly LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Connelly