Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282228 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
528 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Friday, critical fire weather conditions may return to portions of
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as west-southwesterly flow through
the troposphere both over the Panhandles and the Rockies to the
northwest promotes both dry downslope flow and lee cyclogenesis.
That said, top end wind potential looks to be muted as a 45-50 knot
850mb jet will shift east of the area soon after sunrise, replaced
by 700/850mb winds of only around 30 knots. Thus, Friday`s critical
will largely be driven by concerns surrounding low RH, with grasses
highly susceptible to fire starts but highly aggressive fire spread
not necessarily in the cards.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Saturday, while single digit RH values may return, particularly the
SW TX Panhandle, concerns about winds being strong enough for
dangerous fire spread continue with 700/850mb winds remaining modest
at around 30 knots. Thus, while elevated conditions appear likely,
have elected not to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday.
Otherwise, expect warm conditions with highs around 80 for a second
consecutive day.

Sunday looks to have the best shot of the next seven days to
experience bona fide critical fire danger as the dry conditions
continue and mid-level winds increase ahead of an approaching upper
trough. Strong mixing of Friday and Saturday look to recur with
those stronger 700/850mb winds of 40-50 knots to be brought to the
surface. Latest guidance suggests an LLTR may develop, so we will
need to keep a close eye on Sunday over the coming days. Finally, it
should be noted that the vast majority of guidance - a stronger
majority than last week - keeps low level moisture fetch well to our
east, suggesting very little chance for thunderstorms. Despite the
notable struggle mid-range guidance had with last Sunday, with more
margin for error, am fairly confident severe storms will not return
to our CWA.

Monday through Wednesday focus on an approaching cold front and
potential for precip. Guidance shows a variety of exact timings with
the arrival of the front and main body of the upper trough so have
stuck with NBM output for now. Monday may feature thunderstorms
before the front crashes southward, particularly if the upper trough
arrives early and instability can develop as the mid-levels cool.
Conversely, Monday night into Tuesday could presumably see light
snow if the front arrives before the main body of the upper trough
arrives. In any case, the chance for notable, drought dampening
precip appears low.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Southerly winds are expected to stay up in the 15 to 20 knot range
with higher gusts at GUY and AMA for much of the night. Winds will
slow some toward sunrise and then they will pick back up again to
around 20 knots with higher gusts by late in the morning. At DHT
southerly winds are expected to be in the 10 to 15 knot range
overnight and then they should pick up to around 20 knots with
higher gusts by late morning on Friday. Skies are expected to
remain VFR at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  46  81  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              41  76  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  49  84  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              44  81  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  46  80  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               48  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 40  79  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  80  35  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                43  81  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                49  81  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  82  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                47  80  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              46  79  44  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ001-002-
     006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...15


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